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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, March 10, 2007

Nationwide jobless rate falls to 4.5 percent; wages rise

By Howard Schneider and Nell Henderson
Washington Post

WASHINGTON — U.S. unemployment dropped slightly last month and hourly wages rose, evidence of a still-healthy labor market that eased many investors' concerns about a possible economic slowdown.

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent, from 4.6 percent the month before, as businesses and government created 97,000 new jobs. Hiring in the health and hospitality industries and a spike in government employment made up for a drop in construction jobs and a continued decline in manufacturing employment.

Average hourly wages paid to non-supervisory and production workers rose 6 cents, to $17.16, a 4 percent increase from a year earlier.

Though the pace of job creation was slow compared with recent months, the overall report was stronger than expected on Wall Street, giving a small boost to markets that had begun to take a dimmer view of the U.S. economy. Recent reports on economic growth and orders for capital equipment, among other things, pointed to a possible slowdown and contributed to recent volatility in the stock market.

Bolstering the outlook further: The monthly U.S. trade deficit fell nearly 3.8 percent in January, to $59.12 billion. Buoyed by overseas sales of airplanes and computers, exports increased $1.4 billion, to $126.7 billion; imports fell by about $1 billion, to $185.8 billion.

The unemployment report provided an ambiguous portrait of the U.S. labor force.

The drop in the unemployment rate, for example, partly reflects the decision of thousands of workers to leave the labor force, which means they either quit jobs or stopped looking. The report released yesterday did not explain the decline in the size of the labor force by 190,000 people, which includes only those who are working or actively looking for a job.

In addition, a jump in government hiring was seen by some analysts as helping mask weakness in private-sector hiring. The 97,000 jobs added last month was the weakest showing in about two years, and compares to 146,000 jobs added in January and about 226,000 the month before. With a widespread downturn in the residential real-estate market, 62,000 construction jobs were lost last month.

But taken together, the new employment and trade data point to an economy that is growing modestly — the view Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed in congressional testimony last week even as global markets dropped.

Overall, the report "does argue strongly against the idea that weakness in housing and construction is starting to spill over into the service sector," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The employment figures "suggest forward momentum for the economy," but at a rate below its long-term average, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. He noted that the wage increase could add to inflationary pressures.