U.S. exports rise, monthly trade gap falls on weak dollar
By Maura Reynolds
Los Angeles Times
WASHINGTON — The weak dollar produced economic benefits in August as U.S. exports rose sharply, helping shrink the country's trade deficit to its smallest since January, the government reported yesterday.
Economists for months had been expecting that the cheap dollar, which in recent weeks has traded at record lows against the euro, would spur exports, said Gary Hufbauer, an economist with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. A weak dollar can help U.S. exporters by making their goods less expensive for foreign companies and consumers.
"Things are finally kicking in," Hufbauer said. "It's a very gradual reduction in the size of the trade deficit, but it's in the right direction."
Some economists expect the dollar to continue losing value, which would help the trade gap narrow further. That in turn could spur more production and eventually more jobs in the U.S.
"The numbers never move smoothly, but I think the kind of trend we are seeing now we will be seeing at least through next year," said Joel L. Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.
The trade gap totaled $57.6 billion in August, compared with $59 billion in July. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.
In August 2006, the monthly trade deficit hit a record high of $67.6 billion. "That was an intergalactic record," Naroff said. "When you have a $10 billion difference over a year earlier — that's a nice differential."
The monthly trade gap has bounced around this year, even when seasonally adjusted. But August's figure was the smallest since January, when the deficit was $57 billion.
Despite the narrower deficit, Americans' appetite for foreign goods has not significantly slackened, the numbers suggest. Imports totaled $196 billion in August, down a bit from July but up sharply from August last year.
The deficit narrowed in the past year because exports rose more rapidly than imports did. That suggests U.S. producers are permitting prices on their goods to fall overseas, which might spur more production and eventually more job creation in the U.S.
The dollar has declined fairly steadily on currency markets since 2001, losing more than half its value against the euro. Last week the euro hit an all-time high of $1.428; it closed at $1.418 yesterday.
Hufbauer said he expects the euro to rise to $1.50 before the dollar begins to strengthen. In the meantime, he said, U.S. exports are likely to keep rising but not enough to affect the economic debate leading up to next year's presidential election.
"Will this happen fast enough to satisfy the political critics of trade deficits and trade deficits with China? I think the answer to that is no," Hufbauer said.
The U.S. trade deficit with China rose to $22.5 billion in August, from $22 billion a year earlier.
The White House largely sidestepped news of the trade deficit improvement yesterday, saying only that it was good news for exporters.