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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, August 3, 2008

COMMENTARY
'Buyer's market' may linger on Oahu

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Chason Ishii, president of Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties.

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Each week Editorial and Opinion Editor Jeanne Mariani-Belding hosts The Hot Seat, our opinion-page blog that brings in elected leaders and people in the news and lets you ask the questions during a live online chat.

On The Hot Seat last week was Chason Ishii, president of Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties, who answered questions from readers on Hawai'i's real estate market.

Here is an excerpt from that Hot Seat session.

Kaitlin: The subprime lending issue has hit the Mainland hard — why has Hawai'i been less impacted by that, or has it? Can you also tell us what areas here locally have shown the greatest number of foreclosures?

Chason Ishii: Many local banks did not participate in many of the subprime programs like their Mainland counterparts. Due to this, according to Paul Brewbaker, chief economist at Bank of Hawaii, Hawai'i has the lowest mortgage delinquency rate and the second lowest sub-prime delinquency rate in the country.

According to RealtyTrac's second-quarter 2008 U.S. foreclosure market report, Honolulu had the lowest foreclosure rate among the top 100 metropolitan areas in the United States. Honolulu had a total of 254 closures, or one filing for every 1,331 households. Stockton, Calif. was No. 1 on the list with 9,066 filings — a rate of one filing for every 32 households. Historically the trends in this area for Hawai'i have been positive.

Jennifer: I'm interested in purchasing a new home, but continue to see home prices moving down. At the same time, applying for a loan is getting harder and harder. When do you expect the prices to stabilize? And can you comment on when the loan process will get easier?

Ishii: Today it would be considered a "buyer's market" as the real estate industry rule of thumb is that at six months of remaining inventory, it is considered a balanced market. According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors, at of the end of June 2008, there were 8.3 months of remaining inventory for single-family homes. This allows the buyer an opportunity to take advantage of a greater selection of possibilities in their desired neighborhood. Coupled with historically low interest rates, real income levels growing, and the uniqueness and scarceness of Hawai'i land, that makes it a great time to buy. Housing is an asset and on a small island like O'ahu, the availability of homes is a precious commodity. Today the president signed off on the Housing Economy Recovery Act of 2008. In general this will help simplify and make FHA-backed mortgages more available while helping thousands of families refinance existing mortgages and keep their homes. The first-time homebuyer tax credit of up to $7,500, in a program to expand FHA, will allow more homeowners to refinance their mortgages as well. This legislation will offer up to $300 billion in assistance to troubled homeowners, and throw government support behind mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This stimulus package should have a positive effect on the housing market.

John: I've been hearing that the real estate market is getting worse and property values will decline during the next year to two years before we pull out of this. What is your take on this?

Ishii: In Hawai'i, we live in one of the most beautiful places in the world. There is only so much land and inventory making it a rare and treasured commodity. Median sales prices for O'ahu over the past three years have been steady at around the $600,000 to $650,000 price range. However, like most states, there could be major fluctuations based on neighborhoods and price ranges. This is why it's essential that you work with a dedicated real estate professional to help guide you through the process through current and extensive data and information. For example: Year-to-date average sales price (for single-family homes) for Windward O'ahu, is up 13.1 percent (compared with June 2007) whereas the North Shore's average sales price is down 3.7 percent (compared with June 2007), according to the June 2008 Honolulu Board of Realtors statistics.

Lisa: During this downturn in our economy, what areas on the island are holding their value? Where's the best place to purchase a home?

Ishii: According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors' research department, dated June 2008, seven of the 17 single-family neighborhoods that are tracked have a higher median sales price than the previous year, led by Pearl City/'Aiea with a median sales price increase year-to-year of 8.3 percent. You can visit www.coldwellbankerpacific .com to check for market updates on a monthly basis.

Punini: With the average price of homes exceeding $600,000 and rentals in excess of $1,800 per month, do you see any relief in the growing number of those homeless?

Ishii: I truly appreciate your question as I, too, am very concerned about the homeless issue here in Hawai'i. There are some wonderful Housing and Urban Development-approved housing counseling agencies to help individuals through the housing-assistance process. Legal Aid Society of Hawai'i, Hawai'i Homeownership Center and Hawaiian Community Assets Inc., are agencies that offer outstanding counseling services that range from homebuyer education programs, money-debt management, renter's assistance, and services for the homeless.

Ladyluck: What effect will rail transit have on property values? Should the Salt Lake area be concerned or happy about rail?

Ishii: Historically, most metropolitan cities that have mass transit with hubs for rail systems and other operations find that both businesses and housing projects tend to be developed around these hubs.

Ladyluck: So, you're saying rail will increase property values?

Ishii: There are so many factors, each city and neighborhood is unique and it's very difficult to make a prediction about that. We would have to wait and see until we get closer to approval of the mass transit to give us a better perspective for what it will do to home values.

Dave: I have two condos in Honolulu and would like to sell one of them. However, since it's a "buyer's market," do you have any suggestions on what I should be thinking about to ensure I get the best price for my property?

Ishii: To sell your home in this current market, there are several critical elements that you need to have in place as 35 percent to 40 percent of the sales occur within the first 30 days, and of that 35 percent to 40 percent sell at full price or better, according to the June 2008 Honolulu Board of Realtors statistics.

Your decision to sell will require a lot of thought, as this might be the biggest transaction of your life, and it should be made only after careful consideration. In a flat market, you will need to determine the importance of selling versus lifestyle. I want to share my thoughts with you on the most important elements when looking to sell a home. 1.) Chose a full-time, licensed real estate professional. Make sure the agent is market savvy, as knowledge is critical in negotiating successfully in today's market. Select an agent that has the tools and support of a brokerage firm to allow them to promote and expose your property to the widest pool of potential buyers. 2.) Price your home right, as the greatest pool of buyers is available when the property first hits the market. 3.) Make a great first impression by landscaping, staging your property, and by cleaning and de-cluttering it. 4.) Keep an open mind — as any offer that comes from a qualified buyer should be looked upon as the opening of communication and that in this type of market negotiations are common.

Marcus: What role or responsibility do you feel Realtors and real estate agents had in the subprime lending mess? What is being done among real estate professionals to address this?

Ishii: In a loan-approval process, real estate professionals do not make the determination on qualifications or approvals. This responsibility falls on financial and mortgage institutions.

Kirk: Can you characterize the real estate outlook for the Islands in the next three to five years? In the immediate future, is it a buyer's market? How low will it go?

Ishii: Forecasting any housing market can be extremely difficult — it's a science.

Here is what two experts have to say (keep in mind, these are general numbers and island-by-island or neighborhood-by-neighborhood may vary) about the housing market here on O'ahu: the first was done by Paul Brewbaker, chief economist for Bank of Hawaii, in which he stated that he expected home prices on O'ahu (at the median) to drift downward slightly from $625,000 to just over $600,000 during the next several years.

There is also an independent online real estate market forecast company called Housing Predictor. At www.housingpredictor.com, the forecast for the sales price for O'ahu was to decline 7.2 percent for 2008.

Keep in mind that real estate historically is a good long-term investment and has shown consistent appreciation over a period of time.