Inflation, rising at fastest pace since 1981, now 'way too hot'
By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Wholesale inflation soared in July, with prices rising at the fastest pace in nearly three decades. While recent declines in oil and other commodity prices raise hopes inflation may have peaked, some economists worry about the widespread nature of the July price surge and caution it will take more time for that pressure to ease on Wall Street and Main Street.
The Labor Department reported yesterday that wholesale prices shot up 1.2 percent in July, pushed higher by rising costs for energy and a variety of other products from motor vehicles to plastic goods.
The increase was more than twice the 0.5 percent gain that economists expected and left prices rising over the past 12 months by 9.8 percent. That marked the biggest annual increase since the 12 months ending in June 1981, a period when the Federal Reserve was driving interest rates to the highest levels since the Civil War in an effort to combat a decade-long bout of inflation.
Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.7 percent last month. That increase was the biggest since November 2006 and more than triple the 0.2 percent rise in core prices that had been expected.
Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reported that construction of new homes and apartments slid to an annual rate of 965,000 units in July, a 17-year low. Builders continued to slash production as they battled slumping sales and soaring mortgage defaults dumping more homes on an already glutted market.
"Inflation is way too hot," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. "It took a long time for the surge in commodity prices to seep into the general economy so don't expect one month of commodity price declines to suddenly turn off the inflation pump."
But other economists said they believed the July inflation report could represent the worst for inflation pressures this year if — and they concede this is a big if — energy prices continue to decline in coming months.
"A firmer dollar, retreating commodity prices and continued economic weakness should damp inflation by the fall," said Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, who said he looked for elevated inflation numbers at both the consumer and wholesale levels for another month before they start declining.
Economists saw a silver lining in the continued plunge in housing construction, saying it is needed to help reduce the glut of unsold properties as builders compete with foreclosed homes selling at steep price discounts.