MLB: Executives at winter meetings expect economy to affect game
By Derrick Goold
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
LAS VEGAS — During the one time all week when Major League Baseball gathers its general managers as a group to discuss business during the winter meetings, Oakland's Billy Beane still couldn't avoid the 31st general manager in the room.
He found it by dialing up a news story on his phone.
"You check just to see what kind of roller coaster we're on for that day," Beane said. "Just 15 minutes ago, I was reading how 14,000 jobs were cut somewhere. That's just another part of this economy. Anybody who isn't aware of it hasn't turned on the TV."
Executives from across the major leagues have converged on the city of excess and the famously opulent Bellagio hotel only to find many of the clubs preaching restraint. That's life — or at least posturing — in an economic downturn. These meetings have become an odd juxtaposition of baseball's heaviest hitters, some discussing jackpot deals with free agents such as pitchers CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett that will easily top $100 million each, and the bright lights of big casinos. Beneath the glitz and show, both industries have concerns about their traction in this economic spiral.
"You see it here in Las Vegas, walking down Las Vegas Boulevard (the Strip), it's less crowded than it usually is," says San Diego general manager Kevin Towers. "I think it's certainly going to impact our game. We have to be cognizant of it. You're seeing a lot of large-market clubs, their ticket prices have been frozen. Some have reduced prices. We certainly realize as great a game as baseball is, it's a luxury."
Said Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi in The Canadian Press: "It's a pretty shaky and scary economy right now."
The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks have had layoffs already. Multiple teams have frozen ticket prices for the 2009 season, and many others, like the Cardinals, have packaged season-ticket plans at a reduced price. Tribune Co., which owns the Chicago Cubs for the moment, filed for bankruptcy protection Monday even as the head of its baseball operations said he's been told the payroll can increase by more than $10 million.
Other teams are taking preventive measures. San Diego — mandating to shed payroll while also bracing for another drop in ticket sales — is looking to deal ace Jake Peavy and the $63 million remaining on his contract. Towers said he probably wouldn't have moved Khalil Greene to the Cardinals if not for payroll concerns. The free agent market has been slow, with closer Francisco Rodriguez taking significantly less to sign with the Mets — three years for $37 million instead of the five years, $75 million his agent had sought.
"I've noticed, but I don't think there is a read we can have on it that's definitive at this time," Donald Fehr, the players union's executive director, said Tuesday. "Ask questions that call for sweeping generalizations at a stage in the process, which if you do that you're guessing. Baseball has always been resistant to recessions. It's been on a roll for quite a number of years. And we have to see what develops. That's as far as I'll go. Historically, it has been resistant to economic downturns. You can't say more than that without engaging in predictions."
Baseball's revenue grew to $6.5 billion last year, and it has safeguards in place, including the long-term sponsorship deals that range from naming rights at ballparks to suite contracts with local companies. There are also the broadcast-rights deals that guarantee a significant revenue stream. But several executives said this week that their payrolls and budgets may be moving targets as they cannot predict what economic buffeting is ahead. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak described a need to "stay flexible should it take a downturn that we're not anticipating."
Season-ticket renewals have only just gone out in most cities, and there are uncertainties with some sponsorship renewals. In that area, baseball is "really the first sport teed up to find out" how the recession will affect sports, said Andy MacPhail, Baltimore's president of baseball operations.
Exactly how the economy has shaped and will direct this free agent market is less tangible than the price changes and payroll numbers. Many agents and executives say that the big-name free agents will get their hefty deals, but that a middle class of players could be frozen out. Arbitration offers presented an interesting test case, though only two of 24 players leapt at the chance to have their salaries determined through the process. The others chanced the market.
"There are always guys who are left without seats when the music stops, every year," Washington Nationals President Stan Kasten says. "I think there will be more of those than ever. There will be more looking for the $700,000, $800,000 or million-dollar jobs at the end than usual. I think that's obvious."
"The economy is something that does concern me personally and should concern everybody at these meetings," Florida President David Samson told writers Monday. "I think if there are any agents out there who do not believe the economy is a factor in how teams do business, they are in for a major surprise. What's going on is much bigger than the game of baseball. . . . This is a different world. Anyone who does not see it is kidding themselves."