The year 2008 will slowly sink into the west this week, throwing shadows over what has been a year of turmoil and challenge for the state.

During the year thousands of people lost their jobs and unemployment zoomed to near a seven-year high. Energy prices surged as crude oil prices jumped, taking with it gasoline and electricity costs.

Bankruptcies increased, state tax revenues grew at a slower pace and visitor traffic fell.

2008 wasn't a forgettable year; it was one many would like to forget.

So what's to be expected as 2008 dawns on Thursday?

Here are some of our best guesses:

HAWAI'I'S ECONOMY

Gray clouds will cast a shadow over Hawai'i's economy during at least the first half of the year, with the signs of a weak recovery starting to show toward the end of the year. Brace yourself for a continued stream of woeful news over the next several months as tourist counts fall and unemployment and job losses grow. The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization has forecast economic sluggishness through the third quarter of 2009.

UNCERTAINTY REIGNS

The above forecast comes with a huge caveat — in some years economists aren't as sure of their forecasts than others. This is one of those years. Which will be more powerful? Will hotel discounts and lower airfares counteract recession fears and draw more tourists here? Will a new economic stimulus package accelerate an economic rebound? Can increased Hawai'i infrastructure spending be rolled out quick enough to jump-start a recovery?

ON TARGET

This much can be guaranteed in the new year — the opening of the state's first Target stores in Kapolei and Salt Lake will draw throngs of shoppers to check out this fashion-conscious discounter. Isle shoppers will line up for Michael Graves-designed kitchen items, dresses by Isaac Mizrahi, maternity wear by Liz Lange and other designer items at a slim price. The new stores should provide competition for Wal-Mart as shoppers looking for a little more than low prices seek out Target. A Big Island store can be expected to generate similar excitement when it opens in July.

Fancy women's underwear also may come into the retail spotlight. Victoria's Secret is supposed to open a flagship location at Ala Moana Center in the fall, its first store in the state.

HOLIDAY HANGOVER

This goes with the economic territory. You can predict and it has been seen, developers stopping work on projects and big purchases falling out of escrow. Now comes another shoe dropping. The post-holiday season produces a good number of bankruptcies as consumers get their charge card bills and discover they've dug too deep of a hole. But expect this year to produce a few retail bankruptcies or store closings as merchants decide they don't have enough cash or energy to continue.

TOURIST ARRIVALS

Guess when was the last time tourism arrivals increased on a monthly basis. If you said January and February of 2008, you were correct. That almost guarantees a double-digit percentage decline in visitor arrivals for the first two months of 2009 given recent trends. Hawai'i tourist counts have fallen by more than 10 percent in each month since June and almost reached 20 percent in September. Forecasts call for arrivals to fall by up to 5.7 percent in 2009.

INFLATION DEFLATION

Gasoline and electricity costs have headed south in recent months and retailers slashed prices for the holidays. So too have housing prices come down. This pocketbook-friendly environment figures to continue, at least when it comes to inflation. Leroy Laney, economics adviser to First Hawaiian Bank, projects inflation will drop from this year's about 5 percent rate in Honolulu to 3.5 percent in 2009.

GASOLINE PRICES

It's easy to say that prices shouldn't spike as radically in 2009 as they did this year. That's because crude oil prices aren't expected to rise dramatically next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest project calls for the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil to average $51 in 2009. That's higher than what oil trades for currently, so expect a little bump in pump prices if crude oil prices increase as expected.

JOBLESSNESS

Hawai'i had the lowest or among the lowest unemployment rates in the nation a mere two years ago as joblessness hovered around the low 2 percent range. Since that time it's more than doubled and is expected to further increase this year as companies cut workers. Even at that, Hawai'i will probably be lower than the national rate, which was 6.7 percent in November. Hawai'i's rate that month was 4.9 percent.

YOUR HOME

If you want to sell a house for the highest price, you might consider doing so now. If you want to buy a house and want the lowest price, you might wait. Prudential Locations projects real estate sales will slow further in 2009 and that prices could fall 6 to 10 percent by mid-year. It notes that price movements will vary by neighborhood, with some area prices falling further.

INTERISLAND TRAVEL

Aloha Airlines is gone, but in its place we have Mokulele Airlines expanding with larger aircraft and challenging go! for all the interisland traffic that doesn't fly on Hawaiian Airlines. That's good news for consumers who couldn't afford the jump in airfares after Aloha's demise. That battle for travelers with lower fares should continue as long as three airlines vie for market share.