Hawai'i Democrats usually draw less than 5,000 people to their presidential caucuses, but Florence Kong Kee, the party's political director, has already ordered 12,000 ballots for the caucuses this month and is worried that may not be enough.

Over the past several months, as interest in the campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination has peaked, more than 1,200 people have joined the party. Local volunteers for Hawai'i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York are bringing in dozens more blue membership cards to party headquarters at Ward Warehouse.

The anticipation in the Islands could be over by tomorrow — Super Tuesday — if Obama or Clinton clinches the nomination when more than 20 states hold primaries and caucuses. But Hawai'i Democrats are preparing as if their caucuses will matter.

If Obama and Clinton are both still viable after the delegate count tomorrow — a day many analysts believe will seal the nomination — the presidential campaign will immediately turn to the remaining states. Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state Democrats vote on Saturday. Maine Democrats are up on Sunday. Washington, D.C.; Maryland; and Virginia Democrats vote on Feb. 12.

And Hawai'i and Wisconsin Democrats are waiting on Feb. 19.

"I just think it's a matter of seeing how it goes. If it's still close, Hawai'i is definitely going to be a player," said Kong Kee, who estimated that turnout could double the roughly 4,000 who participated in the 2004 caucuses.

EXTRA PREPARATIONS?

Although Wisconsin would likely get the most attention from the candidates, Obama and Clinton would probably invest at least some money in Hawai'i, a traditionally Democratic state with symbolic importance for Obama.

Kong Kee said party leaders would meet after Super Tuesday to assess whether to make extra preparations. In primary and general elections, which are run by the state Office of Elections, people have most of the day to vote. The caucuses, which are run by the party, are held in the evening and the presidential preference poll is only scheduled for a half-hour. Democrats will also be selecting delegates to their county and state conventions in May.

Party leaders have been trying to educate people about the process to avoid any long lines or confusion among people who want to both join the party and vote on caucus night. Some caucus locations, particularly in urban Honolulu, could be swamped by even a modest increase in turnout.

"We are concerned," Kong Kee said.

'A VERY FRIENDLY WAR'

Local volunteers for Obama and Clinton are discussing their strategy, which is unusual in itself, because activists do not recall any extensive get-out-the-vote operations for previous caucuses. At the 2004 caucuses, an effort by dozens of supporters of U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich helped the Ohio Democrat finish second, but their strategy worked mostly because of the low overall turnout and relative lack of effort by other campaigns.

Andy Winer, an attorney and Democratic strategist who is working with the local Obama campaign, said volunteers are contacting up to 5,000 potential Obama voters who have expressed some interest in the candidate. Volunteers may also go mining for votes among demographic groups that have come out for Obama nationally, such as young people and opponents of the war in Iraq.

"As things stand today, it looks like Hawai'i will be meaningful, and, as such, we are intending to run as vigorous a campaign as anyone has seen in this state as it relates to a presidential caucus," Winer said.

State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, D-21st (Nanakuli, Makaha), a Clinton volunteer, said volunteers are coordinating with the Hawai'i Government Employees Association and other labor unions that have endorsed Clinton as well as with the political network of U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, D-Hawai'i, who is backing Clinton.

"We expect to see a lot of their coordination in this process, and HGEA will be a substantial portion," Hanabusa said of the union outreach.

"And one of the benefits of having the senior senator on board is the fact that he has a natural support base, as well, which we are tapping into."

Even a half-hearted get-out-the-vote drive by the HGEA and Inouye could make Clinton competitive in caucuses. Hanabusa also believes that Hawaiians, who usually do not vote in high numbers, may be drawn to Clinton because of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, who signed a 1993 resolution apologizing for the United States' role in the overthrow of the Kingdom of Hawai'i.

"I've always expected Hillary Clinton to have her share of the votes in Hawai'i," Hanabusa said.

Winer described the competition between local Obama and Clinton volunteers as "kind of a weird little civil war, to the extent you want to call it that — although it's a very friendly war, and I don't think it's going to get as heated here as probably on the Mainland."

ROOTS VS. POWER

The Obama campaign has been able to use the senator's Hawai'i roots — he was born here and graduated from Punahou School — to draw crowds at organizing events and get local news media attention.

But Winer said the Clinton camp has a tactical advantage because they can tap into loyal HGEA and Inouye supporters who are perhaps more familiar with the caucuses than some of the Obama recruits, including many who have not been registered Democrats and are new to politics.

"Anybody who's supporting Obama that thinks we waltz to victory when we have HGEA, Sen. Inouye and Sen. Hanabusa on the other side, I think that they are fooling themselves," Winer said.

"They have the capacity and the ability to turn out people out for this kind of event."

Randy Perreira, the HGEA's executive director, said union leaders have encouraged members to attend the caucuses for Clinton but said a get-out-the-vote strategy depends on what happens after Super Tuesday.

"If they split all those states, then theoretically, well, hell, Hawai'i matters," Perreira said. "If either one of those two candidates sweeps, it's all over but the crying, for the most part."

Hawai'i Republicans have been holding their caucuses to select delegates to their state convention in May since Jan. 25 and will finish tomorrow. The state GOP does not hold a presidential preference poll, so the caucuses have not been a factor in the Republican presidential nomination.

Willes Lee, the state's Republican Party chairman, described turnout as strong and predicted that as many as 2,000 Republicans will have participated by tomorrow.

He said Democrats should not take their historical political advantage in the Islands for granted.

"They better be prepared. That's all I can say," Lee said.

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.