honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Obama supporters swamped party regulars

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Columnist

Video: Jerry Burris gives his analysis of the caucus

After years of languishing in virtual irrelevance, the Hawai'i Democratic Party presidential caucuses hit the big time last night with an overwhelming show of support for hometown favorite Barack Obama.

An avalanche of people, many of them newcomers to this slice of the political process and a fair number new to voting at all, showed up around the state to cast a straw poll ballot for Hawai'i born-and-raised Obama.

While the numbers were still preliminary and scattered late last night, it was clear that Obama would win the lion's share of the 20 committed delegates Hawai'i will send to the national Democratic Convention in Denver.

More to the point, the Obama sweep may signal a sea change in the internal workings of the Democratic party here. The Obama phenomenon (U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie called it a "movement") drew thousands of previously uninvolved people into the deepest heart of the Democratic Party system.

If they stay — and it is far from certain that they will — they will change the way the party conducts its political business in fundamental ways.

There have been insurgent movements in previous presidential years, but in the end they have been bested by the superior organizational savvy and discipline of party regulars and their troops.

Not this time. The army of newcomers simply overwhelmed the regulars. In fact, it appeared that even some old-time rank-and-file Democrats moved to the Obama camp this time around, despite the union and institutional backers who were pushing Hillary Clinton.

The Hawai'i results will provide a blip on the national scene, in which Obama added both Hawai'i and Wisconsin to his impressive string of victories. But the real question is how this night will reverberate within local party politics.

If Hawai'i Democrats have been known for anything over time, it was discipline and a willingness to follow the lead of their established leaders. That certainly played out in presidential years.

For example: In 1980, party liberals were aroused by the idea that U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy would make a run for the presidency. They signed up party members, organized well and did their level best at the caucus. But party regulars, led by then-Gov. George Ariyoshi and all four members of the congressional delegation, turned away the challenge and captured all but a handful of the 19 delegate votes at stake that year.

In 1988, a similar phenomenon occurred when Jesse Jackson was running and the fire burned again within the "progressive" wing of the party. A ferocious organizing effort resulted in the Jackson forces winning eight delegate slots. But eventual nominee Michael Dukakis — again backed by then-Gov. John Waihee, party leaders, unions and others — took the bulk of the votes.

Combined with the votes of the establishment-leaning "superdelegates," Hawai'i sent a delegation leaning strongly toward the choice of party leaders to the national convention.

This year will be different. Much, of course, depends on what happens in the next couple of weeks, particularly in the primaries in Texas and Ohio. A surge for Clinton there could put at least a temporary stop to the runaway Obama train.

By convention time, it could be Clinton all the way, with Obama playing a supporting role. Or, obviously much to the delight of the majority of Hawai'i Democratic party caucus goers, it may be Obama as the nominee.

But whatever happens at the national level, the Democratic Party here at home has something entirely new and different to deal with.

Lightning struck last night. Will the party that has largely dominated politics in the Islands for the past half-century be able to bottle it?

Jerry Burris' column appears Wednesdays in this space. See his blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com/akamaipolitics. Reach him at jrryburris@yahoo.com.