Up to 1,800 more Marines may be shifted to Kane'ohe Bay in the next several years; Russia has accepted a first-ever U.S. invitation to participate in the Rim of the Pacific Naval exercises off Hawai'i; and the 8th U.S. Army flag and headquarters will be moved from South Korea to Fort Shafter in about a year.

Those and other updates came as military commanders spoke at the annual Hawaii-U.S. Military Partnership conference yesterday hosted by the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i.

Lt. Gen. John Goodman, the Hawai'i-based commander of Marine Forces Pacific, said about 8,200 of 18,400 Marines on Okinawa will be moved to Guam.

The total of about 28,000 Marines in the Pacific may go up to 30,000, he said. "Some of that will come to Hawai'i," he added. Already, 300 to 400 more Marines are on their way to O'ahu.

About 6,500 Marines are based at Kane'ohe Bay. The force could grow by between 1,500 and 1,800 Marines over the next few years, possibly in the form of one or two additional helicopter squadrons or an unmanned aerial vehicle squadron.

Providing an update on U.S. Army Pacific plans, Lt. Gen. John M. Brown III said that in about a year a merger will take place that will result in Fort Shafter also becoming home to the headquarters of the 8th U.S. Army that's now in South Korea.

A forward command post will remain in South Korea, he said.

RUSSIANS ARE COMING

A three-star general commands the 8th Army. Whether that means the addition of another general officer at Fort Shafter is unclear, officials said yesterday.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to come from yesterday's conference was word that the Russians will join the Rimpac exercises.

Russia's military had gone into decline since about 1995, but new oil money has led to reinvestment in the Russian Pacific Fleet. A Russian bomber flew within several hundred miles of Guam in August, and President Vladimir Putin announced the resumption of long-range patrols in international airspace in a return to a Cold War practice.

U.S. Pacific Command deputy commander Lt. Gen. Dan Leaf said Russia is "not helping" in efforts to maintain stability in the Pacific with increased bomber flights and stepped-up rhetoric.

But U.S. military commanders also spoke of the need for continued engagement to develop trust and prevent misunderstandings with countries including Russia and China, which are both building up military capability.

GREAT PROGRESS

Adm. Robert Willard, the commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, said Russia's agreement to participate in Rimpac is "great progress if we believe that (military-to-military exchange) is one of the methods of finding common ground with these other navies."

He cautioned that world events and politics may result in Russia not participating in the summer exercise that's still about a half year away.

Eight nations, 35 ships, 160 aircraft and 19,000 personnel two years ago participated in the biennial exercise, which usually is held around July. Russia was an observer in 2006.

Brad Glosserman, executive director of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Navy is the key force in the Pacific and has always been at the forefront of promoting military cooperation.

"Being inclusive in your approach to this sort of stuff just makes a lot of sense," he said.

The Navy said the National Defense Authorization Act of 2000 allows search and rescue, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief participation with China, but it precludes participation in Rimpac.

CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA

A China delegation did observe the Valiant Shield exercise off Guam in 2006, but the U.S. also feels China has not reciprocated enough in allowing American access to China's military.

"We have concerns about China. We're concerned about their military buildup," Leaf said, calling it "troubling."

Leaf said he's not assuming a slide toward an adversarial relationship, but he added there is a disconnect between China's stated desire to have a peaceful military rise and actions like an anti-satellite missile test that left a huge debris field in low Earth orbit.

SONAR TRAINING NEEDED

Willard, the U.S. Pacific Fleet commander, said China has three times the number of submarines of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific Ocean. Many are quiet diesel boats, he said.

"They are not, we believe, as skilled as our Navy is in their ability to locate submarines," Willard said. China has a very small fleet of ballistic missile subs with nuclear capability "that stays pretty close to home," he added.

Willard also said mid-frequency sonar training to detect submarines is "imperative" for the Navy, but he noted that environmental lawsuits have challenged sonar use in Rimpac and off Southern California.

Leaf, the deputy commander of U.S. Pacific Command, said U.S. forces are capable of taking on challenges in the Pacific, even with regular Army and Marine deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, he added: "We are stretched. We're chewing up a lot of equipment, and we're concerned about it."

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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