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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Thursday, July 10, 2008

CENSUS
Honolulu population shrank a bit in '07

By Christie Wilson
Advertiser Maui Bureau

O'ahu experienced its first population loss in seven years, according to new Census Bureau estimates for 2007.

The year-to-year decline in the estimated number of O'ahu residents was a slight one, 0.12 percent, and represents a loss of only 1,114 people. The last drop occurred in 2000, when the island lost 2,750 residents from the previous year.

The population slowdown already appears to be affecting the housing market, with the number of O'ahu residential building permits down 45 percent in the first five months of the year, according to Eugene Tian, research and statistics officer for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Statewide, residential building permits are down 12 percent, Tian said.

"The slowdown in demand is connected to the high number of people moving away," he said.

Hawai'i's high inflation rate — 4.8 percent vs. 3.1 percent nationally — and high housing and living costs are driving residents to the Mainland and elsewhere, he said. Tian estimated that 10,000 more people are leaving the state annually than moving here.

On O'ahu, the entire 2007 population loss came from the Honolulu CDP (census-designated place), which stretches from Red Hill to Makapu'u. That area had an estimated population of 375,571, down 0.3 percent from 2006, according to census data released yesterday. That's a loss of 1,194 people.

The Honolulu CDP accounted for 41.5 percent of the island's population in 2007, compared with 42.4 percent in 2000.

The Census Bureau ranked Honolulu CDP as the 49th most populated city in the nation, down three notches from 2006.

The population for the remainder of O'ahu, estimated at 530,030, grew by 0.01 percent, only 80 people, from July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, according to census estimates. In the six years before 2007, the number of residents had increased an average of 4,241 annually.

Since 2000, the Honolulu CDP population has risen 1.1 percent, by 3,914 people. During the same period, the population for the remainder of O'ahu increased 5.1 percent, by 25,531 people.

Tian said the Honolulu CDP population grew more slowly than the rest of O'ahu because of more residential construction in those other areas.

The population for O'ahu as a whole has grown 3.4 percent since 2000 to 905,601, the lowest percentage increase among the state's four major counties, according to the 2007 estimates.

NEIGHBOR ISLANDS GROW

The Neighbor Islands continue to experience strong population gains, with the Big Island leading the way.

According to the latest census data, Hawai'i County had 173,057 residents in 2007, up 2.1 percent from 2006, followed by Maui County with 141,783 residents, a one-year increase of 0.99 percent, and Kaua'i County with 62,828 residents, up 1.4 percent.

Since 2000, Hawai'i County has seen its population grow 16.4 percent, while the number of Maui County residents increased 10.7 percent, and Kaua'i County 7.5 percent.

Oft-forgotten Kalawao County, comprised of the residents of Kalaupapa on Moloka'i, saw its population dwindle from 147 to 119 during the same period, a 19 percent drop.

The Big Island counted 24,380 new residents since 2000, more than Maui and Kaua'i counties combined and only 5,000 fewer than seen on O'ahu.

The effects of such growth are most felt on roads in Kona and Puna, said Hawai'i County planning director Chris Yuen. Everything from healthcare facilities to classroom space also are impacted.

"What drives the need for infrastructure is population shift, and we're having population shift here, big time," Yuen said.

The availability of relatively low-cost housing, especially in East Hawai'i, is one reason for the county's popularity. Yuen said Puna accounts for up to 40 percent of the Big Island's population growth.

A single-family home in Puna can be purchased in the low $200,000s, he said. That's with gravel roads and water-catchment systems, but at that price, many people are willing to live with fewer conveniences, Yuen said.

The planning director noted the Big Island has experienced population growth even during times of economic stagnation. This indicates people are moving there not necessarily for jobs or other economic reasons, but because they prefer the lifestyle and scenery.

Yuen did note the housing market has "slowed down quite a bit" from the peak year of 2005, when the county processed 3,500 residential building permits. There were 2,100 such permits last year, and at the current pace, Yuen expects 2008 will finish with 1,300.

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Reach Christie Wilson at cwilson@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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