Bus ridership is up, gasoline sales are down and Honolulu is still trying to decide whether it wants a fixed-rail mass transit system.

A lot of folks have signed a petition saying they don't want rail. But it is now quite obvious that the high price of oil and gasoline is changing habits.

It is true, however, that while bus ridership is up, it's still below its peak of the 1980s when tourists used the bus more because "jitney" and other visitor-oriented services were not available.

The big question is whether this drift away from cars is permanent, or just a blip caused by higher fuel prices. You can take it as an aberration only if you believe fuel prices will come down to Earth once again.

And that, say the people who study these things, is just not going to happen. In fact, in the eyes of most of the rest of the world, $4-a-gallon gas is already absurdly low. Most drivers in Europe and Asia pay far more.

International energy expert Fereidun Fesharaki, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, argues the world is very close to the practical limit of how much oil it can, or will, produce. And while alternative energy is on the horizon for electricity and other uses, oil is and will be the fuel of choice for transportation for a long time to come.

When the world hits "peak oil" and no more is being pumped into the global system, Fesharaki says, the golden rule of economics says demand will continue to push prices up until consumers hit the wall of resistance. But even if American consumers walk away because of high pump prices, growing demand in other parts of the world will keep prices high.

This, says Fesharaki, poses an interesting policy choice for government officials in the United States, including Congress, governors and city officials. If gas prices are going to rise to six or eight dollars a gallon or even more, why should the market do the taxing? Why not impose taxes now to bring the price of fuel up to the limit of consumer endurance, he asks.

Fesharaki knows it would be virtual political suicide for an elected official to propose a gas tax of this magnitude. But his argument is that drivers will be paying that amount anyway in a few years, so why not keep the money at home?

If such a tax were to be imposed, demand would be curtailed and there would be more than enough extra cash to invest in alternative energy and, yes, even a sophisticated, energy-efficient public transit system.

Jerry Burris' column appears Wednesdays. See his blog at http://akamaipolitics.honadvblogs.com. Reach him at jrryburris@yahoo.com.

Jerry Burris' column appears Wednesdays in this space. See his blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com/akamaipolitics. Reach him at jrryburris@yahoo.com.