Mayoral campaigns on the Big Island and Kaua'i and an unexpected challenge to Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann will likely dominate local politics this year as some analysts predict higher voter interest because of the presidential campaign.

The presidential matchup between Hawai'i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona could help draw voters to the polls and, given Obama's popularity in the Islands, could help Democratic candidates.

No single local campaign is likely to overshadow the presidential election, but voters will have significant choices to make in the mayoral and council races. Voters also will be asked whether there should be a state constitutional convention, a decision that could influence politics for the next several years. Voters on O'ahu also may get to consider a multibillion-dollar mass-transit project if the question qualifies for the November ballot.

Neal Milner, an ombudsman and political analyst at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said that before the developments yesterday in the Honolulu mayoral race the local political landscape looked largely uneventful.

"Overall, dull would probably be the word for it," Milner said. "Up until now there really hasn't been much excitement at all."

The potential for higher voter turnout because of Obama — particularly among young people who helped produce record turnout at the February caucuses — is a possibility even though Milner has his doubts.

"I'll believe the higher voter turnout when I see it," he said. "A lot of the voter turnout predictions here are based on the idea of hope."

Gov. Linda Lingle told reporters yesterday that the economy likely will be the top issue for voters this year.

"I think people who are running for office in this election need to be people who understand the struggles that businesses and their employees are having right now, and to be the kind of people who are not going to make it more difficult for businesses to operate, but make it easier for businesses to operate," the Republican governor said.

ISLAND RACES

On the Big Island, several candidates hope to succeed Harry Kim as mayor, including state Sen. Lorraine Inouye, D-1st (Hamakua, S. Hilo), Kim aide Billy Kenoi and County Council members Stacy Higa and Angel Pilago.

On Kaua'i, County Council members JoAnn Yukimura and Mel Rapozo and county parks director Bernard Carvalho Jr. are running in a special election to replace the late Mayor Brian Baptiste.

In Honolulu, City Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi jolted political observers yesterday with her late announcement that she would run for mayor. Former City Councilman Duke Bainum, who lost a mayoral campaign to Hannemann, quickly jumped into the race to fill Kobayashi's council seat. State House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, D-24th (Manoa), followed just before the 4:30 p.m. filing deadline.

Although Hannemann is still the favorite, Kobayashi and engineer Panos Prevedouros will give voters an alternative, particularly those opposed to rail transit with steel-on-steel technology. A Bainum-Caldwell race could be among the most closely contested for the council in years, since both have experience and name recognition.

At the federal level, both U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawai'i, and U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawai'i, are not facing substantial opposition.

For many observers yesterday, the most notable development was the number of state House and Senate lawmakers who have no challengers and were essentially re-elected at the filing deadline. In the House, more than a third of incumbents — 22 — are running unopposed. Two Senate incumbents are unopposed.

With five open seats in the House, and two in the Senate, this is not expected to be a high turnover year.

ADVANTAGE DEMOCRATS

Average to above-average voter turnout would likely enable Democrats to hold the gains they made in 2004 and 2006. The Obama factor will likely play out most heavily in close races or those that do not have candidates with strong name recognition or history.

But since the majority party has to maintain so much territory, Democrats may lose two seats in the House and could pick up one seat in the Senate. Democrats have a 44-7 advantage in the House and a 21-4 margin in the Senate.

Several intraparty skirmishes should get attention in the September primary.

State Rep. Alex Sonson, D-35th (Pearl City, Waipahu), is challenging state Sen. Clarence Nishihara, D-18th (Waipahu, Crestview, Pearl City), in a Senate primary. State Rep. Josh Green, D-6th (N. Kona, Keauhou, Kailua-Kona), is up against former Big Island County Council member and former state Rep. Virginia Isbell in a Senate primary for an open seat.

In the House, state Rep. Karen Awana, D-44th (Honokai Hale, Nanakuli, Lualualei), has a primary opponent in former biotechnology executive Hanalei Aipoalani. Awana, a freshman, is facing voters for the first time since switching parties. State Rep. Bob Nakasone, D-9th (Wailuku, Pu'unene, Makawao), who has had health problems, is up against former Maui Mayor James "Kimo" Apana.

For the general election in November, some of the potentially competitive races include state Rep. Dwight Takamine, D-1st (Kohala, Hamakua, N. Hilo), against former state chief labor negotiator Ted Hong for an open Senate seat. State Sen. Gordon Trimble, R-12th (Waikiki, Ala Moana, Downtown), could face former Democratic Party of Hawai'i chairman Brickwood Galuteria if Galuteria gets through the primary.

Most of the incumbents who are not being challenged are Democrats, weakening Republican chances of making gains in the balance of the Legislature.

"That's just another indicator of how far the Republican Party hasn't come in the last eight years when you've had a Republican governor," Milner said.

Willes Lee, the state GOP chairman, said the party was happy to field the team of candidates it did. He said some people approached to run for office cited the economy as a factor in turning down the offer.

"We were very selective at looking for candidates and recruiting candidates and we have some exceptional folks running this time," he said.

Brian Schatz, the Democratic Party of Hawai'i chairman, said it is an exciting year to be a Democrat. "As usual the unexpected happened today, so there was a lot of scrambling around and jockeying for position," he said. "That's what makes politics exciting."