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The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 4:40 p.m., Thursday, July 31, 2008

State expects $50M loss in tax revenue

Advertiser Staff

The state Council on Revenues this afternoon lowered its forecast for revenue growth this fiscal year to 1 percent, down from its 2 percent prediction in May, which means a loss of about $50 million in anticipated state revenue.

The council dropped its forecast for fiscal year 2010 to 4 percent, down from 4.3 percent, about a $15 million loss on top of the lower base from this fiscal year.

Gov. Linda Lingle asked the council to reconsider its forecast in light of the struggling economy. The council had not been scheduled to make another forecast until September.

Paul Brewbaker, a Bank of Hawaii economist and the council's chairman, said the lower forecast is related to the sharp decline in visitor arrivals that has hurt tourism spending since the shutdown of Aloha and ATA airlines during the spring as well as a broader change in consumer behavior as people try to reduce their spending.

Staff with the House Finance Committee believe this is the first time the council has adjusted its forecast outside of its regular schedule since after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.