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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, June 6, 2008

Record foreclosures won't ease soon

By Stephanie Armour
USA Today

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

An auction sign is posted at a house under foreclosure in California. New home foreclosure and delinquency rates are at record levels.

PAUL SAKUMA | Associated Press

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With homes entering foreclosure at a record rate, economists see no letup in the surge of homeowners who are losing their properties for failure to pay their mortgage.

For the first quarter of the year, the rate of new foreclosures hit 0.99 percent, the highest point since record-keeping began in 1979, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday. And the delinquency rate — reflecting those at least 30 days behind on their bills — reached 6.35 percent. That was another record.

"It doesn't get any worse than this," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy .com. "There's no sign of stabilization. It's going to continue at least through the end of this year."

Some states have been battered. California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada combined represent 89 percent of the increase in homes entering foreclosure, the MBA says.

While foreclosures have been rising in Hawai'i, the state's rate is still well below the national average. The MBA data show 0.52 percent of Hawai'i mortgages fell into foreclosure during the January-to-March period. The delinquency rate for Hawai'i mortgages was 2.92 percent.

Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight, says: "I look at a lot of housing reports, and this is probably the worst report I've come across. We still think home prices will drop another 10 percent, and foreclosures will remain elevated through the end of the year."

At the same time, Newport says, there's some sign that home sales may be picking up in California and Florida. If so, he says, that could lead to an uptick in sales nationwide by the end of this year. But he and other economists say the high rate of national foreclosures will persist.

The main reason is that so many adjustable-rate mortgages have been resetting this year, and in many cases they're leaving people with higher mortgage bills. And in a sagging economy, with workers facing job losses or shrunken paychecks, many homeowners can't afford bigger payments.

Compounding the misery, prices are plummeting, in part because of a swelling supply of homes for sale, magnified by the rising foreclosures. Stuck with foreclosed properties, banks are slashing prices to unload those homes, forcing other sellers to cut their own prices to compete. A drop in housing values, in turn, has left current homeowners with dwindling equity, spurring even more foreclosures.