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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, May 2, 2008

HOME PRICES
Oahu home prices keep slipping lower

By Andrew Gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

The median sale price of existing O'ahu single-family homes last month fell 3.9 percent, the third straight decline and the biggest so far this year.

While still small compared to many Mainland housing markets that have suffered double-digit price drops, O'ahu's April decrease was further evidence that Hawai'i's biggest residential real estate market is in the midst of a slight downward price slide.

The Honolulu Board of Realtors reported that previously owned homes sold for a median $639,000 in April, compared with $665,000 in the same month last year.

Sales volume, which is in its fourth year of decline, fell 25.1 percent last month to 256 sales from 342 sales a year earlier.

Condominium resales last month totaled 384, down 27.1 percent from 527 a year earlier. The median condo price was $327,000, up 0.6 percent from $325,000 in the same period.

Dana Chandler, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors trade association and broker-in-charge at Hawaiian Island Homes Ltd., said median prices are still "pretty firm" given the slowing economic environment and tight credit markets.

"We continue to be fortunate that this is still a stable environment for both buyers and sellers," she said in a statement.

Earlier this year, single-family home median sale prices were unchanged in January, then declined 2.5 percent in February and 2.4 percent in March compared with the same months last year. For all of last year, the median price rose 2.1 percent following five years of annual price increases roughly between 7 percent and 28 percent.

Still, over the first four months of this year, the single-family home resale price is $625,000, down just 0.8 percent from $630,000 at the same time last year. The median is a point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

DECLINE PROJECTED

The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization in March forecasted that the median single-family home price this year will decline 3.2 percent, a projection that anticipates somewhat larger median price declines later this year.

If the single-family home price drops this year, it would be the first annual reduction since 1999, when the median dipped 2.4 percent to $290,000.

UHERO also projects that O'ahu's median single-family home sale price will decline 2.3 percent next year. Condo median price projections by the organization are for a 1 percent decline this year followed by a 2.8 percent decline next year.

The median condo price over the first four months of this year is up 2.2 percent at $329,000 over $322,000 for the same period last year.

Mike Gallagher, broker-in-charge at RE/MAX Honolulu, expects recent job layoffs and rising prices for consumer items such as gas and food will work their way into what people can pay for homes in coming months, resulting in what he predicts could be a 12 percent drop in O'ahu's median single-family home sale price this year.

Chason Ishii, president of Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties, said it's too early to tell if price weakness will expand.

"There's still demand," he said. "It's pretty stable. I don't see any major drops."

Ishii said a big jump in foreclosure sales could increase downward pressure on median prices, but so far there have been only moderate numbers of foreclosures in the local market.

'BUYERS' MARKET'

Based on the pace of sales, it would take nearly seven months to deplete current inventory if no more homes were put on the market. Ishii said that is one month more than what's considered an equilibrium between a buyers' market and a sellers' market.

"It's a buyers' market, but they don't have a huge advantage," he said.

Last month there were 1,955 single-family homes on the market. That was up from 1,919 in March and 1,726 in April 2007, but still below a recent high of 2,052 in November 2006.

Condo inventory totaled 2,629 units last month, up from 2,581 in March and 2,301 in April 2007, but was still below the recent high of 2,750 in September 2006.

While fewer homes sold last month, they spent less time on the market — an average of 43 days for single-family homes and 33 days for condos — before selling. That was down by a few days from both the prior month and a year ago.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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