honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, May 11, 2008

COMMENTARY
Obama's big win

By Jules Witcover

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Barack Obama is ever closer to becoming the Democratic presidential nominee as he continues to lead in delegates over Hillary Clinton.

JAE C. HONG | Associated Press

spacer spacer

The party leaders there and in Florida decided, nevertheless, to hold their primaries outside this window and were penalized by the DNC with the loss of their convention seats. Most Democratic presidential candidates agreed not to campaign in either of the two rogue states and took their names off the ballot. Clinton didn't campaign there either, but she left her name on, and won both states handily.

In Michigan, where 128 pledged delegates would have been elected, Clinton got 328,309 votes, or 55.2 percent of the total, to 238,168 for an uncommitted slate. In Florida, where 185 pledged delegates would have been chosen, she won 334,951 votes, or 49 percent, to 202,945 or 29 percent for Obama.

So far Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean has been adamant in rejecting her pleas that her votes in the two states be counted, while saying he wants all state delegates seated. The whole purpose of setting the calendar window with the four state exceptions was to diminish somewhat the advantage of traditional early dates of Iowa and New Hampshire and bring some greater order to the process.

However, states were permitted to hold their primaries and caucuses on any dates inside the window, a flaw that permitted more than 20 of them to rush to the first permissible date within it, Feb. 5, 2008, creating a stampede and the indecisive fiasco of Super Tuesday.

Even before the polls closed in North Carolina and Indiana, Clinton was telegraphing her strategy. Asked whether the majority needed for nomination was still 2,025 delegates, without including Michigan and Florida, she told reporters, "I think it's 2,209," which would include both states.

Her campaign spokesman, Howard Wolfson, confirmed the scheme, saying: "We are going to argue that it's going to take 2,209 to get to the magic number. ... We're going to argue that Florida and Michigan need to be seated full strength."

This effort to move the goalposts during the game may not sit well with the superdelegates, possibly irritating those still weighing their candidate choice. The DNC's rules and bylaws committee is to meet on May 31 to hash out the whole matter. Both state parties have rejected redoing their primaries, and suggestions that the delegates simply be split between Clinton and Obama would not help Clinton in the least.

Meanwhile, Clinton goes on to the remaining six state primaries starting in West Virginia next Tuesday. The six have neither enough delegates nor popular votes at stake to enable her to close the gap with Obama. Her only chance may be some colossal gaffe by him to turn the tide, a circumstance that should encourage him to watch what he says, and keep his focus on McCain.

There were two primary victory rallies Tuesday night — Barack Obama's in North Carolina and Hillary Clinton's in Indiana — but there was only one winner. By whipping her by 14 percent in the first contest and coming within two points of her in the second, Obama has brought Clinton to the brink of defeat.

Her hope of selling herself to the party's superdelegates as the stronger nominee against Republican John McCain was undermined not only by those results, but also by the total popular vote in the two states. According to the Web site www.realclearpolitics.com, Obama's pledged delegate lead rose to 166 and his net popular vote gain was about 210,000, boosting his total over Clinton in the primaries to about 715,000 votes.

Before Tuesday, she had been claiming she had more total popular votes, by counting ballots she received in Michigan and Florida. But those primaries, held prematurely under party rules, were rejected by the national party. Now aides say the votes should count anyway, raising the delegate majority needed for nomination that Obama is steadily approaching.

The latest Clinton strategy is an exercise in arrogance. Well before the primary season started, the Democratic National Committee created a "window" from early February to early June in which primaries and caucuses had to be held. Four states got exceptions — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — in nods to tradition and regional diversity. Michigan sought to be included but was turned down.

Jules Witcover writes for Tribune Media Services. Reach him at juleswitcover@earthlink.net.