The Central Pacific Ocean is likely to see three to four tropical cyclones in 2008, slightly fewer than an average year, according to the latest forecast released yesterday.

"Just because it's a slightly below season, doesn't mean we should be less prepared," said Jim Weyman, director of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "We never know when that one is going to hit us."

Last year's forecast of two to three tropical cyclones — the umbrella term for hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions — also fell below the average of 4.3 tropical cyclones.

But Weyman emphasized that one of the two tropical cyclones that actually developed included August's Hurricane Flossie, which was heading directly for the southern portion of the Big Island until it suddenly veered west and south of Hawai'i.

Even without a direct hit, Flossie still generated tropical storm force winds and 20-foot surf.

"Hurricane Flossie put some people on edge for a while," Weyman said. "It was headed right toward the Islands."

This year's low number of expected tropical cyclones comes as the current La Niña condition is expected to weaken by June or July, resulting in a "neutral range."

"After that time," Weyman said, "the models disagree a great deal on what happens after the June or July period."

Some models call for La Niña to give way to an El Niño condition, which could create trouble in the Central Pacific, which includes Hawai'i.

"That's one of the things we need to watch," Weyman said.

It's a misconception that Kaua'i would be the most vulnerable island to the threat of another hurricane, he said.

"All islands are at equal risk," Weyman said. "So all islands must be prepared."

La Niña conditions occur when the surface temperature of the ocean is slightly cooler than normal. El Niño conditions happen when the surface temperature is slightly warmer.

At yesterday's news conference, Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona declared this week Hurricane Preparedness Week in Hawai'i. The hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

State, county and federal officials yesterday also began their two-week Makani Pahili (strong winds) joint exercise coordinating their responses to a simulated hurricane.