The planned $3.7 billion mass-transit system could also pump new life into the former plantation town and other communities along the 20-mile route from East Kapolei to Ala Moana.

The system's 19 stations, which will be capable of moving about 6,000 passengers an hour in each direction, could become hubs for housing, business and employment. That in turn could spur land values and real estate development.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann plans to start construction late next year, with the first segment beginning operation between East Kapolei to Leeward Community College in 2012. In Waipahu, which could be among the first communities to feel those impacts, expectations are high.

"It will make (Waipahu) into a big boom town," said Frederic Chun, who owns property adjacent to a planned train station near Mokuola Street. "It's going to increase the value considerably because that's a very important stop right there."

San Francisco-based architectural and urban design firm Van Meter Williams Pollack LLP seems to agree. The company predicts Waipahu could become a low-rise version of Downtown Honolulu during the next 20 years or so. Conceptual drawings recently released by the company show a massive redevelopment of Waipahu that includes buildings of 10 or more stories near a planned station at Leoku Street and Farrington Highway.

Those drawings and other plans prepared by the firm will help tailor rules governing housing density, parking and pedestrian amenities near Waipahu's transit stations, both of which would be along Farrington Highway.

The city's goal is to foster transit lifestyles and higher-density developments near train stations, which could curb urban sprawl.

However, the scale of those redevelopment projections are jarring for some. Sen. Clarence Nishihara, D-18th (Waipahu, Pearl City, Crestview), said the community may not support such massive change.

"It scared me," said Nishihara, who viewed the plans at a community meeting last month. "I was actually shocked at what was shown.

"It had such a huge footprint and was so alien to what the community was all these years that I think it would have a hard time to get approval."

Councilmember Nestor Garcia, who also represents Waipahu, acknowledged that the scale of redevelopment plans was imposing. However, those plans reflect the area's maximum development potential, which may not represent reality.

Still, the train will bring big changes to Waipahu, Garcia said.

"I know that will give some people pause because they're so used to how Waipahu is laid out now," he said. "That changes with the coming of this."

CONTRASTING PLANS

The projections by Van Meter Williams Pollack, which works for the city's Department of Planning and Permitting, contrasts with assessments conducted by another city transit contractor.

According to a February 2007 report by New York-based Parsons Brinckerhoff, both Waipahu stations have limited economic development potential. That's because the areas surrounding the stations are fully built-out with little vacant land, according to the project consultant.

City spokesman Bill Brennan said Parsons Brinckerhoff's assessments were based on current zoning regulations in Waipahu. Van Meter Williams Pollack's drawings reflect land-use zoning changes that would allow for high-rise, high-density developments. Parsons Brinckerhoff's assessment, which was conducted during the project's formative stage, was not meant as a definitive assessment of economic development potential surrounding transit stations, Brennan added.

According to plans developed by Van Meter Williams Pollack, Waipahu could see massive redevelopment spreading outward from its two stations planned near Leoku Street and Mokuola Street. Economic development would start with nearby vacant properties and large parcels of privately owned land. That would be followed by the redevelopment of properties with buildings built between 1959 and 1970, then parcels with buildings built between 1970 and 1980.

The first properties slated for redevelopment near Leoku Street include Don Quijote and several nearby auto dealerships.

At the Mokuola Street station, the first properties projected for redevelopment include a three-quarter-acre parcel that now houses a doctor's office and auto parts store, according to city drawings. Saxon Nishioka, an officer for the family-owned company that owns that land, said there are no plans to redevelop that property.

Such redevelopment "is going to involve a capital infusion," he said. "It is going to involve risk and it's definitely going to cut off our income stream for a very appreciable amount of time.

"Right now, as of this moment, I don't think we can afford to do that."

However, "if this were to develop on the plan basis that (the city) is talking about and if the property owners are willing to make these kinds of investments, I think it will be a wonderful thing," Nishioka said. "But there are large 'ifs' in there."

Just how much development the train could bring to Waipahu and other areas will vary, said City Councilman Gary Okino. Areas with greater amounts of undeveloped land, older buildings and favorable land use zoning are more likely to benefit economically.

POSSIBLE INCENTIVES

Favorable zoning rules, which could be adopted for the area near transit stations, would allow for higher-density residential housing.

The scale of transit-related economic development will depend heavily on the availability of other landowner incentives such as property tax breaks, revenue bonds, and tax increment financing, Okino said.

"The city and the state have to be willing to give in to certain things," he said. "There's all kinds of incentives to give them because, obviously, this is to the advantage of the city."

The city has yet to propose the creation of tax incentives for transit-oriented economic development. This spring, state lawmakers debated a bill that would have exempted affordable housing and healthcare facilities built near transit stations from the general excise tax. That bill did not pass.

Critics of the rail project contend that transit station redevelopment won't occur without massive subsidies. Those subsidies would come on top of the transit project's projected $3.7 billion price tag.

"From our perspective, subsidizing at huge expense a rail line in order to subsidize transit-oriented development borders on being nuts," said Cliff Slater, chair of anti-rail Web site www.ho nolulutraffic.com.

Even without the train, Waipahu is expected to benefit from increasing economic activity occurring in the rapidly growing Kapolei area. That growth will draw Waipahu further from its plantation town roots, said Bill Paty, a trustee with the Mark A. Robinson Trust, which owns a controlling interest in the land under Don Quijote's Waipahu store and several other Waipahu parcels.

"That situation is kind of like a pot beginning to boil," Paty said.

Over time "the (plantation) heritage will fade," he said. "It certainly won't look tomorrow what it looks like today."