WAC football postseason taking shape
By Bryant-Jon Anteola
McClatchy Newspapers
Fresno State is in danger of missing a bowl.
Boise State could go undefeated but still get left out of a Bowl Championship Series game.
The answers as to what Western Athletic Conference teams play in which bowl won't be revealed for another month.
But in this I-want-it-now technology age, why wait?
Here is an early look on how the postseason is taking shape.
First, a quick rundown of the WAC parameters.
To be bowl eligible, a team must finish at least .500 (6-6) or in Hawaii's case, since it plays a 13-game schedule, 7-6.
The WAC has primary tie-ins to three bowls—the Hawaii Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl and the New Mexico Bowl.
It also has a secondary tie to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego this year but requires two scenarios to occur:
The Pac-10 must be unable to field seven bowl-eligible teams (a strong possibility since only six teams are above .500).
And the WAC must have four teams that finish with at least sevens wins (under NCAA rules, the WAC first must fill its three primary ties before slotting a secondary tie).
And if the WAC's fourth-place team were to finish 6-6, it likely would not get into a bowl since a seven-win team from a different conference would have priority to fill a bowl spot over a six-win team. If there aren't any seven-win teams from other conferences, the WAC's 6-6 team would play over any other 6-6 team in the Poinsettia Bowl.
That all said, let's assume the WAC fulfills its obligation.
The WAC could have as many as five teams with at least seven wins.
If Boise State wins out, it has a good chance of receiving an automatic bid into a BCS game, likely the Fiesta Bowl.
So peg them to get in and assume the Mountain West's ranked teams—Utah, Texas Christian and Brigham Young—ruin each other's chance of a BCS bid.
Then, assume Nevada plays to its potential and shores up its defense to win three of its final four games.
Assume Fresno State splits its final four games against Nevada, New Mexico State, San Jose State and Boise State.
Assume San Jose State loses two of its final three (change of quarterbacks, read further below).
And that Hawaii's loss to Utah State last week was an aberration and the Warriors win three of their final four games at New Mexico State, then three straight home games against Idaho, Washington State and Cincinnati.
Also, assume Louisiana Tech crumbles down the stretch and loses three of its final four (is 0-4 on the road with two more road games, and hosts Nevada).
That means the WAC will have five bowl-eligible teams with Boise State finishing 12-0, Nevada 7-5, San Jose State 7-5, Hawaii 7-6, and Fresno State 7-5.
Who goes to what bowl?
The WAC doesn't have a pecking order of selection in filling its bowl ties, instead operating under the philosophy of pleasing every party possible from the participating teams and the bowls.
Then here's the predictions one month out:
Boise State plays in the Fiesta Bowl.
Nevada rises from fifth place in the WAC this week to second by season's end and plays in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Fresno State maneuvers its way into the Poinsettia Bowl (big game against San Jose State in two weeks could decide this fortune) to play a top-tier opponent from the Mountain West (BYU anyone?).
And San Jose State hangs on to a bowl spot and lands in the New Mexico Bowl.
CHOOSING THE LESSER EVIL
Boise State fans and members of the WAC will want to pay attention to Thursday's showdown of No. 12 Texas Christian (9-1) at No. 8 Utah (9-0).
Both programs stand in the way of Boise State reaching a BCS game.
Though Boise State is undefeated, No. 10 in the BCS standings and currently eligible for a BCS bowl, the automatic BCS bid would go to Utah, which is the highest mid-major at No. 8 in the BCS standings.
Should Utah lose, the Utes surely would fall behind the Broncos (assuming Boise State wins) in the next BCS standings.
But that still doesn't assure Boise State would become the highest mid-major.
TCU is No. 12 in the BCS standings, also currently eligible for a BCS bid, has only lost to then-No. 2 Oklahoma. And a win against Utah could potentially vault the Horned Frogs over the Broncos.
Boise State did receive some encouraging news in the latest polls with the Broncos jumping over the Utes in the Associated Press Top 25, ranked No. 9 and No. 10, respectively.
But the AP poll does not factor in the BCS standings like the USA Today coaches' poll and the Harris poll do.
"The AP poll can have some influence on voters from time to time," Benson said. "So it's going to be very, very close."
SPARTANS QUARTERBACK HURT
San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed is expected to miss his second straight game because of a bruised tailbone and could be in danger of losing his starting spot.
Reed, a transfer from Cal, did not play last week in San Jose State's 30-24 win against Idaho and coach Dick Tomey has named last week's starter Myles Eden the starter against Saturday against Louisiana Tech.