A new forecast is saying the U.S. and Japan, two major drivers of Hawai'i's economy, will slog through their own economic problems in the coming year and weigh heavily on tourism here.

The report by the University of Hawai'i's Economic Research Organization says the unfolding financial crisis will result in the deepest slowdown in global growth in years, with the wealthy nations experiencing a recession and developing countries suffering a sharp reduction in growth rates.

"The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai'i's ailing visitor industry and the overall economy," says the report titled "Crisis Contagion Spreads Global Recession."

The report is the latest by UHERO to examine economic prospects and conclude the state's outlook is clouded through 2009.

The state is in the midst of an economic slump that's included monthly visitor counts falling by 19.5 percent in September and unemployment that's nearing a seven-year high. Auto sales through the first nine months were off by one-fifth, and Gov. Linda Lingle is edging toward budget cuts because of lower-than-projected tax revenue.

UHERO's report didn't have good news with respect to the U.S. and Japan, two economies that provide the state with most of the tourists vacationing here. It noted the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter and that negative growth is expected for the first half of next year.

U.S. unemployment will peak at 8.5 percent by the end of 2009, with economic growth resuming by early 2010.

The outlook for Japan's economy is marginally better. Uhero said it expects 2008 gross domestic product growth in the country will come in at 0.3 percent and that next year it will contract by 0.4 percent.