Visits to Maui County were down by 20.5 percent to only 159,053 in October, according to the state Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism.

Because the decline didn't start until May, the year-to-date visitor count is down less, 14.3 percent to 1,777,780.

Those who came spent less, $2 less per person per day, for an average of $189.

"The national and global economic conditions continue to affect the visitor industry statewide," state Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert said.

On a visit to Maui earlier this month, Wienert had predicted October would be the worst month this year, but she also said there could be worse months in 2009. Economic forecasts from business, academia and DBEDT itself foresee little recovery next year.

"There are a few positives in the October statistics," Wienert said. Canadians continue to increase their numbers.

"In addition, the recent commitments received by the airlines to continue and/or increase air seats to the islands from Japan, Korea and Taiwan will help as we develop these geographic markets."

East Asian visitors, and a big jump in international conventioneers, will help Oahu more than the Neighbor Islands.

October numbers bear this out. Visits to Oahu were down to 313,138, a drop of 13.3 percent.

Besides Maui County's drop of 20.5 percent, Kauai was down 25.9 percent to 75,119, and the Big Island was down 19.7 percent to 96,366.

During her visit to Maui, Wienert said the ratio of repeat visitors to first-timers continues to be worrisome. In October, the ratio of repeaters from the most important market, the western states, rose to 80.4 percent.

Repeaters testify to Hawaii's appeal, but unless the islands can recruit new customers, the long-term outlook is bleak.

Repeaters were up from the eastern states (54.3 percent), Canada (59.4 percent) and Japan (54.1 percent) as well.

With discretionary spending down throughout all sectors of the economy, the "time-share effect" was expected to show up. It did.

Because time shares are prepaid, owners are expected to be reluctant to skip a trip. In October, the number of U.S. west visitors staying in time shares rose from 13.9 percent in 2007 to 17.1 percent this year. There was a smaller increase in the proportion of U.S. east visitors staying in time shares — 11.5 percent compared with 10 percent the year before.

The total of visitors to the islands in October was 511,518. They spent $844.7 million, which was $124.6 million less than in October 2007.

For the first 10 months, visitor expenditures are down 7.9 percent to $9.6 billion.

The total number of visitors through October is 5.7 million, down 9.7 percent.

* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.