Lines in stores and traffic at shopping malls today are expected to be lengthy, but many retailers are bracing for a disappointing holiday sales season that officially starts today — Black Friday.

National surveys suggest that more people plan to shop on this Black Friday than last year, but some industry analysts predict shoppers will spend less because of economic worries.

"Black Friday is the quintessential American shopping day ... and no matter how dismal the economy, you can count on the stores being filled to capacity," Tod Marks, a senior project editor and shopping expert for Consumer Reports, said in a statement.

Marks added, however, that the big question this year is how much consumers will cut back spending.

Ngoc Dam of Honolulu plans to get out of the house this morning for her second annual Black Friday shopping run, and figures she'll spend about the same on holiday gifts as she did last year.

Dam plans to start her day at about 6 a.m. at Armani Exchange, which opens at 5 a.m. at Ala Moana Center, then head to Guess and The Disney Store.

"I'm just going for the fun of it and to see the bargains," she said.

The day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday because it launches the holiday shopping season, the time of year that can turn stores' accounts from the red ink that means losses into the black ink of profits.

Black Friday has been categorized as the No. 1 or No. 2 holiday shopping day every year since 2003, compared with prior years when the day after Thanksgiving was typically in the bottom half of the top 10, according to ShopperTrak and the International Council of Shopping Centers.

This year, anywhere from a quarter to half of all shoppers are expected to shop today. According to a mid-October poll by St. Louis-based Maritz Research Inc., 41 percent of adults said they plan to shop on Black Friday, up from 37 percent that said they would last year.

An International Council of Shopping Centers poll last week got a similar response — 45 percent of consumers planning to shop on Black Friday, compared with 36 percent last year. A Consumer Reports poll suggests that only 26 percent of consumers plan to shop tomorrow, up from 21 percent last year.

"It appears retailers can expect roughly the same number of shoppers as last year on the day after Thanksgiving," Tom Krause, director of strategic retail consulting for Maritz Research, said in a statement. "However, they will definitely be spending less and will be more deal sensitive than ever."

SALES IN FREE-FALL

Retail sales nationally have fallen in four straight months through October, compared with the same months last year, and some experts anticipate the trend will continue through the holiday season.

The National Retail Federation has one of the most optimistic projections for holiday shopping this year based on a survey of consumers: a 2 percent increase over last year, which would be the lowest rise since the trade group began its poll in 2002.

Market research firm ShopperTrak predicts holiday sales will be flat this year, while a survey by the nonprofit business forecast group The Conference Board suggests that holiday gift spending will be down 11 percent.

"Consumers are in a cost-conscious mood heading into the holiday season and they intend to spend less this year than last year on gifts," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. "This is shaping up to be one of the most challenging holiday seasons in years, and it's going to take more than the usual discounts and incentives from retailers to get consumers to spend more freely."

DISCOUNTERS POPULAR

Much of the fight among retailers to capture a bigger slice of what may be a smaller pie will be among specialty stores, luxury retailers and department stores, because discounters like Wal-Mart are naturally attracting budget-minded consumers in the bad economy.

According to the Maritz Research national poll, 62 percent of respondents said they will shop at Wal-Mart, and 54 percent said they will shop at Target. Best Buy came in next at 39 percent, followed by Toys 'R Us and Kmart at about 30 percent. About 20 percent of respondents said they will shop at Sears, Macy's and Circuit City.

"Retailers are going into this holiday season with their eyes wide open, knowing that savings and promotions will be the main incentive for shoppers," Tracy Mullin, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a statement. "No one is canceling Christmas because money is tight, but consumers will be sticking to their budgets and looking for good deals when deciding where to spend this holiday season."