REASSESSING STATE REVENUES
New look sought on revenue projections
By Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Government Writer
State House and Senate leaders have asked the state Council on Revenues to revisit its revenue forecast in light of the crisis in the nation's financial markets.
Lawmakers want an upgrade of the state's general-fund revenue picture when the council meets this month to discuss personal-income projections. The council was not scheduled to upgrade its forecast again until January, after Gov. Linda Lingle submits her proposed two-year budget and just before the start of the next session of the state Legislature.
In August, at Lingle's request because of the state's slowing economy, the council broke its regular forecast schedule for the first time since after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The council downgraded its growth projection for this fiscal year from 2 percent to 1 percent and then later kept the projection at 1 percent at its regular meeting in September.
The council's revenue forecasts are used by Lingle and lawmakers when drafting the state budget. State departments were expected to turn in budget requests yesterday, with outlines of potential spending cuts of 10 percent, 15 percent and 20 percent, as the Lingle administration prepares the first draft of the budget for release in December.
Under the council's current forecast, the state is anticipating a $162.3 million deficit by the end of this fiscal year and, without substantial spending cuts, the deficit would grow to an estimated $903 million at the close of the two-year budget cycle in 2011.
State Rep. Marcus Oshiro, D-39th (Wahiawa), chairman of the House Finance Committee, said lawmakers want to make sure the council's revenue forecast is not already outdated. Revenue growth for the first three months of this fiscal year, according to the state Department of Taxation, is at 1.7 percent.
"I would think that the projections are obsolete. And I would suggest that they come back in and address the true fiscal condition facing us," Oshiro said.
Paul Brewbaker, a Bank of Hawaii economist and the council's chairman, had not yet seen the letter from lawmakers but said it is likely the council would comply with their request. "I can't imagine that we wouldn't do it," he said.
Lingle, meanwhile, met separately yesterday with the editorial boards of The Honolulu Advertiser and Honolulu Star-Bulletin to discuss her approach to the projected deficit and to improving the economy.
While the Republican governor said she could not offer any new specifics, she said the state would likely close the gap through departmental spending restrictions, the use of certain special funds, the restructuring of the state's debt and a paring back of technology tax credits.
Her five-point plan for short-term improvements to the economy is to increase tourism marketing, move forward with capital improvement projects, attract and retain private-sector investment, lower state fees and taxes and maximize federal and private-sector partnerships.
The governor's long-term goals continue to be moving the state toward energy independence and the economy toward innovation.
"We're not just sitting around waiting for things to get better," Lingle said.
Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.