WAIMEA — From his lifeguard tower at Waimea Bay, Kerry Atwood looked out over an ocean that was as calm as a bathtub this week but will begin pounding the North Shore as early as this afternoon with the first big waves of the winter — drawing even more crowds to an area that has stayed busy despite a sluggish economy.

Atwood and the other lifeguards along O'ahu's North Shore will kick into another gear today, because the National Weather Service has forecast that waves of 10 to 12 feet will start rising from the ocean, growing to as big as 15 feet by tomorrow.

Atwood has stood watch over Waimea Bay for 19 years and struggled to remember a summer as busy as this one, with up to 2,000 people a day there. On Wednesday, there were as many as 1,000 people, during a week when some public schools were on a break.

"We've definitely had some record-setting days," Atwood said. "I noticed a little bit of a slowdown since Labor Day, but not nearly as much as I expected."

Despite a downturn in Hawai'i tourism and an overall sluggish economy, North Shore beaches have remained busy even during the usually slow "shoulder season" between summer and the holidays.

Many businesses have continued to enjoy healthy sales precisely because of the bad times, said Antya Miller, executive director of the North Shore Chamber of Commerce.

In a curious twist, the theory along the North Shore is that both budget-conscious tourists and local residents are being drawn to the leisurely pace and free beaches there.

"Definitely, definitely," said Glenn Kamai, a nightclub bouncer who took his growing family on a leisurely drive to Waimea Bay from Waimanalo this week. "We're just cruising. It's nice out."

With three children and another due in two weeks, Kamai couldn't afford his usual family vacation to a Neighbor Island or a trip to Las Vegas or Disney World this year.

"Everything's tight," he said. "But the beach — it's free."

A group of about 20 Mililani High School football players and their friends have been fixtures at Waimea Bay for months, they said.

"It's practically our backyard," said junior linebacker Zach Quines, 16.

STOKED OVER SALES

The spillover of activity has kept sales humming at places like Hale'iwa Joe's restaurant.

"We definitely had a good summer," said Pat McGillin, whose father is one of the restaurant's owners. "At times we were slammed. There were definitely a lot of families, a lot of locals, along with tourists."

So McGillin, a shortboard surfer, is excited about the prosperity the big-wave winter season may bring.

"We're all stoked with the surf kicking up," he said.

Studies for the Hawai'i Tourism Authority found that 51 percent of overnight tourists to O'ahu ventured out to the North Shore in winter 2003 and summer 2005 — an estimated 2.4 million visitors.

This summer, many North Shore businesses saw sales rise more than 10 percent from last year, Miller said. Some of them deal in less-expensive items and others have made smart business decisions such as consolidating different operations into one location, she said.

At the same time, others have clearly struggled with the downturn in the economy.

"Some have had significant decreases," Miller said, "as much as 40 percent off."

In general, September "was definitely slow," she said. "The line at Matsumoto's (a shave ice shop in Hale'iwa) wasn't going all the way out to the parking lot."

New efforts helped, such as the Hale'iwa Art Walk on the last Saturday of every month that began in July.

"A lot of residents were coming out," she said. "It was like old home week."

BIG WAVES, BIG CROWD

Whatever crowds have been turning out with regularity will only grow with the monster waves.

Waimea Bay Beach Park's parking lot has already started filling up beginning at 9 a.m. over the past few months. But today's expected big waves will have traffic crawling along the entire North Shore.

There already have been a few parking lot scuffles and a couple of confrontations between swimmers and fishermen, Atwood said.

So he urges everyone to remain calm and patient with the beginning of the big wave season.

In the meantime, he said, North Shore lifeguards have new equipment and have had plenty of off-season training for rescues in the rough winter waters.

And he warned even veteran North Shore beachgoers to be wary of the tricky shore break at this time of year.

Wave action hasn't yet built up the usual sandbar that creates Waimea Bay's famous Banzai Pipeline, so people need to know that waves will break right up to the beach, he said.

"It could be a very busy day with the arrival of the first new swell," Atwood said. "But I can guarantee you the taxpayers will get their money's worth. We'll be ready."