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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, October 22, 2008

VOLCANIC ASH
Rail or no rail transit, that is the question

By David Shapiro

As the time nears for voting on the City Charter amendment that will decide whether we build a commuter train from Kapolei to Honolulu, I'm developing an appreciation for former Councilwoman Rene Mansho.

She was the swing vote when the city last considered rail in the early 1990s, and was vilified in many quarters when she killed the project by changing her vote to "no" at the last minute.

Whether she was right or wrong, I'm starting to see why she found it such a tough call.

I favor public transportation, am willing to pay my share and think a modern train would be a nice thing for Honolulu to have.

But I have nagging doubts about whether the proposal on the table passes Mayor Mufi Hannemann's test of nice to have vs. need to have, or if it's conceived to give us the best possible system at the lowest possible cost.

Campaigns on both sides have been mostly emotional hard sells that haven't clarified anything.

These questions nag at me:

  • What are the real costs and how will we pay for them?

  • When we add inevitable cost overruns and necessary extensions to West Kapolei, the airport, Waikiki and the University of Hawai'i, the project will cost at least a couple of billion more than the $5 billion that will be raised by the half-percent O'ahu excise tax and federal funds. There also will be tens of millions in annual operating and maintenance costs. The city has offered little information on where this money will come from. Another excise tax hike? Higher property taxes? Voting without knowing the answers feels like writing a blank check.

  • Can we be confident that the system will be built honestly and efficiently?

    Early signs are discouraging.There have been allegations of political favoritism in some of the first contracts, and the Legislature is taking 10 percent off the top of the transit tax for a non-transit slush fund — unnecessarily running up the cost of rail to O'ahu taxpayers by some $400 million right off the bat.

    This hardly suggests a commitment to tightly managing costs on the most expensive public works project in Hawai'i's history; hence my concern about writing blank checks.

  • Is this the most traffic relief we can get for $5 billion or more? City studies estimate that morning rush hour traffic on H-1 will increase 64 percent by 2030 without rail and 57 percent with rail.

    This isn't a greatly impressive reduction and makes you wonder what we could achieve by simpler means — not big-ticket solutions like toll roads, but traffic management tools like carpooling, staggered work hours, four-day work weeks, telecommuting and incentives to move jobs to West O'ahu.

    Existing carpool lanes on H-1 are underutilized, except by single drivers using them illegally. How can we justify spending $5 billion-plus on new options when commuters don't use options they already have?

  • Will people ride the train? The majority surveyed say they won't, but hope to get more room for their cars if others use rail.

    For many commuters, the train won't be much less of a hassle than fighting traffic in their cars. 'Ewa Beach residents who work in town, for instance, would have to get to the train station — a traffic battle in itself — take a train ride of up to 40 minutes and, if they work outside of the Nimitz-Ala Moana corridor, find a ride to their ultimate destination.

    My vote doesn't carry the weight of Mansho's, but I, too, will be squirming over it up to the last minute.

    David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net. His columns are archived at www.volcanicash.net. Read his daily blog, Volcanic Ash, at volcanicash.honadvblogs.com.

    David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net. His columns are archived at www.volcanicash.net. Read his daily blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com.