With less than two weeks before O'ahu voters go to the polls, Mayor Mufi Hannemann holds a commanding lead over City Council member Ann Kobayashi in the race for mayor, according to the latest Hawai'i Poll conducted by Ward Research and sponsored by The Honolulu Advertiser and KGMB 9.

Of those polled, 58 percent said they will vote for Hannemann or are leaning toward supporting him, while 33 percent said they were backing Kobayashi.

The poll queried 402 likely voters between Friday and Tuesday with a 4.9 percent margin of error.

The results suggest Hannemann's call for a new rail system to address the city's transportation and development needs is winning support from a majority of voters.

"I'm backing the mayor because he is obviously for alternative transit opportunities," said Lauren Hall, a 21-year-old student living in Hawai'i Kai. "I feel there are a lot of people going against rail, but they are not coming up with any alternatives."

Hall said she recently lived in Washington, D.C., and used the city's transit system. "I loved it. If people in Hawai'i had the experience, I think they would be behind it, too," she said.

Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research, said it will be tough for Kobayashi to overtake Hannemann when she is this far behind this late in the campaign.

"He's showing a lead that would be hard for any candidate to narrow," Ward said. "It is difficult to see how the Kobayashi campaign could overcome his lead at this point."

LEADS IN ALL CATEGORIES

Kobayashi has campaigned on bringing fiscal prudence and transparency to City Hall. She has long been opposed to the rail project and has offered a $2.5 billion mix of fixed guideways for buses and managed traffic lanes as a cheaper alternative to Hannemann's plan.

She also has promised to serve the full four-year term if elected while Hannemann says he may consider other options. In 2010, the governor's spot will open up when Gov. Linda Lingle reaches the end of her second term.

Henry Cohen, a 67-year-old 'Ewa Beach resident, said that's one reason he is supporting Kobayashi.

"Frankly, I am voting against Mufi Hannemann and that's why I am supporting her. Plus, I don't think he is going to stick around for four years," Cohen said.

"I am in favor of the rail, but I didn't like the way he spent taxpayer money on the campaign. In an effort to show my displeasure, I am voting against him."

Hannemann led Kobayashi by a sizeable margin in all categories measured by the poll, most notably among voters younger than 35, where he enjoyed a 68-29 advantage.

"We've all talked for months about the extent to which new voters and young voters will turnout," Ward said. "With young voter turnout, Hannemann benefits even further."

WIDE SPENDING MARGIN

Hannemann was up 66-29 among those earning between $50,000 and $99,000 a year and held a 64-24 lead with likely Filipino voters.

Those polled were asked, "If the election for mayor of the City and County of Honolulu were today, and the candidates were Mufi Hannemann and Ann Kobayashi, who would you vote for?"

If the individual being polled said he or she was undecided, the follow-up question was, "Toward which candidate are you leaning?"

"The only strength that (Kobayashi) shows is among voters 55 and over, but even among that group, Hannemann holds the lead," Ward said.

Hannemann has outspent Kobayashi by a wide margin, with more than $1 million of his campaign funds being used in 2008 to combat her campaign.

Hannemann said he was pleased with the poll results.

"We're very humbled and grateful for the support the people of Honolulu have for me and my team at City Hall. We're going to work hard each and every day through Nov. 4 because ultimately the only poll that counts is Election Day. We're not going to sit on our laurels," he said.

Kobayashi, who decided to enter the mayor's race the night before the July 22 filing deadline, questioned the validity of the Hawai'i Poll. She said recent polls she has reviewed from labor unions and other sources indicate a much closer race.

"I question the poll, because we've seen different polls taken by unions and the results seem so different. I think the polls we have seen reflect why the mayor is putting so much money into more advertising and his increased attacks," she said. "We're going to continue what we're doing because it's been very successful."

'REAL UPHILL FIGHT'

Those who indicated their support for Kobayashi expressed dissatisfaction with the rail system and Hannemann's handling of public money.

Holly Dickinson, a 51-year-old Kaka'ako resident, said she is voting for Kobayashi and against rail.

"Her plans sound better. I don't believe in steel-on-steel (transit) and I don't think it's good for the island," Dickinson said. "I don't believe they should be spending money the way they do, giving themselves raises while everyone else is suffering."

Some of those supporting Hannemann said they did not like the way Kobayashi jumped in at the last minute and left Duke Bainum to run for her City Council seat unopposed.

Neal Milner, a political scientist and ombudsman at the University of Hawai'i, said Kobayashi may not have the money needed to close the gap with Hannemann.

"She's got a real uphill fight and whether she has the kind of resources to overcome that is part of the issue here," Milner said. "Can she blanket with advertising? Does she have a number of people on the ground who can blanket?

"Mufi has been really good about not making this a referendum on mass transit. What this does suggest is that he may have a much easier time mobilizing a group of people who may be leaning in his direction."