The city's plan to build a $3.7 billion commuter rail line appears headed for a slim victory on Nov. 4, according to a Hawai'i Poll conducted earlier this month.

The poll indicated 51 percent would vote for the rail referendum, while 43 percent would vote against and 5 percent were undecided.

The results, while favorable for rail, remain within the poll's margin of error, and illustrate just how divisive the issue has been.

The Hawai'i Poll, conducted by Ward Research and sponsored by The Honolulu Advertiser and KGMB9, queried 402 likely voters by phone from Oct. 17 to Oct. 21. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann hopes to break ground on the 20-mile elevated rail line from West Kapolei to Ala Moana late next year.

Support for rail may have been bolstered by the city spending more than $2.7 million on a public information campaign that included pro-rail advertising. That effort has been augmented by hundreds of thousands of dollars spent by the Hawaii Carpenters Union, Go Rail Go, the Pacific Resource Partnership and others.

SUPPORT DECLINES

Despite the spending, the results of this month's poll shows support for rail shrinking since a Hawai'i Poll in July. The earlier poll asked whether respondents supported rail in general, and found that 61 percent were in favor of moving ahead with rail, compared with about 33 percent who were opposed.

It's unclear whether current economic uncertainties are eroding support for rail, which would be the biggest public works project in state history. Plunging visitor arrivals and slumping real estate and construction sectors are forcing the city and state to reduce tax collection forecasts and reduce spending.

The slowdown is likely to have an impact on tax collections needed to build the elevated train

Some poll respondents expressed concerns about the rail project's anticipated inflation-adjusted $5 billion price tag as well as future operating costs.

"I get worried about it," said Waikiki resident and business attorney Russel Yamashita, 55. "I'm afraid there's this huge tax burden that's coming down the pike. That means a much bigger tax burden on the property owners essentially, or worse, we're going to have to raise the excise tax."

"Adding these additional property or excise taxes is not going to be helpful to development or promoting new businesses in the state," Yamashita said.

Bill Scottsman, 43, a personal investor in Kaimuki, said he opposes rail over concerns the project's costs could escalate.

"I don't trust the government figures on the amount they'll end up spending and the amount of time that it will take," he said. "I just don't trust it.

"I'd rather see (the city) building up Kapolei and putting more out there. The government can put jobs out there" to reduce traffic into town, Scottsman said.

Earle Kealoha, 50, a government worker in Kalihi, said he's leaning toward voting for rail, but is concerned about the project's cost.

"That is probably the one thing that worries me," he said. "They always give us a price tag, and by the time it's done, it's three or four times that amount.

"But then the question remains — we gotta do something" to alleviate traffic.

STILL UNDECIDED

Kealoha said he may vote no in hopes the city will explore building a better bus system, which would be more flexible than a train.

"The story's not out on that one," he said. "I could end up switching on November 4th."

Kealoha seems to be among a relatively small number of residents that have yet to choose sides on the issue. Just 5 percent of poll respondents said they don't know how they'll vote on the rail charter amendment.

That points to how polarizing the rail issue has been for the community, said Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research Inc.

The fact that there are so few undecideds means rail will likely prevail on Nov. 4, Ward said.

"Even if the 'don't knows' all went 'no,' it's not enough to sway it," she said. "The consistency of support for rail across most of the demographic groups suggests it will be very hard to turn the tide on this one."

The rail vote could be even tighter than the latest Hawai'i Poll indicates if enough older voters turn out on Nov. 4, Ward said.

"Turnout can make a difference in the numbers; whether it can sway it, I don't think that's the case," Ward said. "But the fact is that one of the only constituencies that shows stronger opposition than support is the 55 plus. That also tends to be the group that shows up at the polls."

Rail proponents, including trade unions, hope to convince voters that the rail project will provide a much needed boost to economy by creating construction jobs. They also point to the rail as an alternative to travel on congested roadways and a way to reduce urban sprawl by encouraging dense growth near train stations.

"Homes are just popping up like no tomorrow," said 'Ewa Beach resident Bill Piche, 48, who supports rail and was included in the poll. "I hope that it will help with traffic. Especially with the growth on this side of the Island. I still think we'll have some traffic issues, but we gotta do something because with the population growth on this side, it's just going to get worse."

According to the Hawai'i Poll, support for Hannemann and rail were closely correlated. More than three-quarters of rail supporters also support Hannemann's re-election. Hannemann has made construction of a new rail system a top priority for his administration. In contrast, 80 percent of those opposed to rail supported Hannemann rival Ann Kobayashi, who favors a rubber-tire mass-transit system.

POLL BREAKDOWN

Beyond politics, support for rail differed by age and ethnicity. Caucasians and Hawaiians were more likely to oppose rail. Japanese and Filipinos were more likely to be rail supporters. Meanwhile, older voters age 55 and up were the only age demographic surveyed that opposed rail overall.

Younger residents such as Jameson Ramelb, 23, were more likely to favor rail. Ramelb, a teacher in Wahiawa, said he'll vote for rail because the elevated train could be a more reliable and efficient alternative to TheBus.

"We're looking at massive traffic gridlock and right now rail seems like a feasible alternative, but I don't necessarily agree with the current route," he said. "I really think it should go to" the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, Ramelb said. "Being a former college student, I know how lazy we are. If it doesn't stop across the street, we're not going to take it because we want it to go right to the doorsteps. And I really don't think it should go through Salt Lake."

Kobayashi, who is counting on opposition to Hannemann's rail plan to help her unseat him, said, "I'm surprised that (the rail vote) is still close since the city has spent at least $2.6 million on ads. The city spent a lot of taxpayer's money trying to influence people to vote yes," but, "I guess people still worry about their pocketbooks."

Hannemann said he was pleased with the poll results.

"I'm happy to see that a majority of people are supporting rail transit," Hannemann said. "I am pleased that respected organizations like the AARP, the Hawaii Business Roundtable and the ethnic chambers of commerce understand how important this project is for our economy, our environment and our quality of life.

"As I've always said, the longer we delay, the more we're going to pay, and Sen. Dan Inouye has made it abundantly clear that it's 'now or never.' "