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The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 4:47 p.m., Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Forecast of state revenues adds another $75 million to budget deficit

Advertiser Staff

The state Council on Revenues revised its forecast today to add another $75 million to the state government's estimated deficit for this fiscal year.

The council lowered its prediction of growth in general-fund revenue this fiscal year to negative 0.5 percent, down from plus 1 percent.

"The Council on Revenues' lower projections reflect the economic realities we are facing as a result of factors that are taking place at the national and global level that are beyond our control," Gov. Linda Lingle said today in a statement.

"We will review the council's revised projections and work with our departments to determine additional areas where we can reduce discretionary spending, and look for new ways to increase our operational efficiencies," she said.

"By law, our state government is not allowed to have a deficit, and we will not have a deficit. My administration is cutting spending for all state departments, while implementing innovative ways to maintain public service at the highest levels."

The Lingle administration had been projecting a $155.4 million deficit for the fiscal year that ends in June, but with the new forecast, the deficit is now estimated at about $230 million.

The council debated whether the forecast should be lower, given sharp declines in tourism, lower personal income growth, higher unemployment and a lack of consumer confidence. Instead, the council cautioned that its estimate is uncertain given the volatility of the economy.

"I would like to convey how uncertain this number is," said Carl Bonham, a University of Hawai'i-Manoa economist who serves on the council.

The council also lowered the forecast for fiscal year 2010 to 3.5 percent, down from 4 percent, a $25 million loss in revenue in addition to the lower base from this fiscal year.

State House and Senate leaders asked the council to revisit its forecast for this fiscal year because of the downturn in the financial markets since the 1 percent estimate was released in July and reaffirmed in early September.

It was second time this year that the council updated its forecast outside of its regular quarterly schedule. Lingle asked the council to reconsider its forecast in July after revenue collections for the last fiscal year came in below expectations.

The council's forecasts are used by the governor and state lawmakers when drafting the state budget. The lower revenue estimates will likely lead to deeper state spending restrictions over the next several months as well as less spending in the two-year budget the governor and lawmakers will consider during the next legislative session.

Revenue growth during the first three months of the fiscal year, according to the state Department of Taxation, was 1.5 percent. But that figure included a one-time franchise tax collection. Without that collection, revenue growth was zero.