Obama ad a classic closing commercial
| • | Obama's more Illinois than Hawaii, folks in Chicago say |
By Cathleen Decker
Los Angeles Times
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Barack Obama's 30-minute campaign commercial last night was not merely a tactical decision to carpet-bomb millions of Americans in pursuit of a few thousand undecided voters who can dictate the outcome of the presidential campaign.
Aired on seven network and cable stations, the ad served as a national get-out-the-vote organizing tool for Obama operatives. It offered even the swiftest channel-flipper the chance to see Obama looking presidential, helping to condition voters to that possibility. And once again it proved to John McCain, and everyone else, how Obama's deep pool of campaign cash has allowed him to rewrite the rules of presidential campaigning.
As the years-long pursuit entered its final days, the Democrat's commercials were pelting important electoral states, trying to smother efforts by McCain to diminish Obama's lead in polls of voters nationally and in most key states.
According to an accounting by the Neilsen television research company, the Illinois senator was running more than twice as many ads across the country as McCain, even after the Republican increased his television buys.
On Tuesday, for example, McCain ran 1,543 ads across the nation. Obama ran 3,160, according to the Neilsen survey, and as with McCain, most were aired in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
"At some point, the tonnage of Obama commercials makes it difficult for McCain to get his message out," said Ken Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist who studies political advertising.
The half-hour Obama ad was a classic closing commercial, with a positive tone that belied the hand-to-hand combat going on in key states, both on the air and on the ground.
He did not mention the names of his opponent nor was there more than an elliptical reference to President Bush. Instead, he presented himself as one who understands the fears of middle class voters. Prominently mentioned were key electoral states, like Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida. The film evoked Americana, opening with waves of grain.
Americans may be near the saturation point when it comes to the presidential race, but the stark reality for both candidates is that the days until Nov. 4 are running down, and with them options for changing the trajectory. One of the side benefits to Obama's media splash was that it overshadowed McCain yesterday, analysts said.
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REALITY CHECK Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was less than upfront in his half-hour commercial last night about the costs of his programs and the crushing budget pressures he would face in office. A sampling of what voters heard in the ad, and what he didn't tell them: THE SPIN: "That's why my healthcare plan includes improving information technology, requires coverage for preventive care and pre-existing conditions and lowers healthcare costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year." THE FACTS: His plan does not lower premiums by $2,500, or any set amount. Obama hopes that by spending $50 billion over five years on electronic medical records and by improving access to proven disease management programs, among other steps, consumers will end up saving money. He uses an optimistic analysis to suggest cost reductions in national healthcare spending could amount to the equivalent of $2,500 for a family of four. Many economists are skeptical those savings can be achieved. THE SPIN: "I also believe every American has a right to affordable healthcare." THE FACTS: That belief should not be confused with a guarantee of health coverage for all. He makes no such promise. Obama hinted as much in the ad when he said about the problem of the uninsured: "I want to start doing something about it." He would mandate coverage for children but not adults. His program is aimed at making insurance more affordable by offering the choice of government-subsidized coverage similar to that in a plan for federal employees and other steps, including requiring larger employers to share costs of insuring workers. THE SPIN: "I've offered spending cuts above and beyond their cost." THE FACTS: Independent analysts say both Obama and Republican John McCain would deepen the deficit. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Obama's policy proposals would add a net $428 billion to the deficit over four years — and that analysis accepts the savings he claims from spending cuts. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, whose other findings have been quoted approvingly by the Obama campaign, says: "Both John McCain and Barack Obama have proposed tax plans that would substantially increase the national debt over the next 10 years." THE SPIN: "Here's what I'll do. Cut taxes for every working family making less than $200,000 a year. Give businesses a tax credit for every new employee that they hire right here in the U.S. over the next two years and eliminate tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Help homeowners who are making a good faith effort to pay their mortgages, by freezing foreclosures for 90 days. And just like after 9/11, we'll provide low-cost loans to help small businesses pay their workers and keep their doors open." THE FACTS: His proposals — the tax cuts, the low-cost loans, the $15 billion a year he promises for alternative energy, and more — cost money, and the country could be facing a record $1 trillion deficit next year. Indeed, Obama recently acknowledged — although not in his commercial — that "the next president will have to scale back his agenda and some of his proposals." |
