honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 4:12 a.m., Monday, September 8, 2008

McCain, GOP get bounce in poll

By SUSAN PAGE
USA TODAY

ENTHUSIASM UP FOR PARTIES

A nationwide Gallup poll taken Friday-Sunday compared adults’ opinions of Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden after the conventions.

1. The enthusiasm gap

Are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year:

Democrats after the conventions: 67 percent more enthusiastic — 19 percent less

Before conventions: 57 percent-28 percent

Republicans after the conventions: 60 percent more enthusiastic — 24 percent less

Before conventions: 39 percent-47 percent

2. Effect on congressional elections

Which party’s congressional candidate would you vote for (among likely voters):

After conventions: Republicans 50 percent-Democrats 45 percent

Before conventions: Democrats 51 percent-Republicans 42 percent

3. Current favorable ratings

John McCain: 63 percent

Barack Obama: 62 percent

Sarah Palin: 53 percent

Joe Biden: 49 percent

4. Who would better handle each of these issues:

The economy: Obama 48 percent-McCain 45 percent (Obama +3, compared to Obama +16 before conventions)

Terrorism: McCain 55 percent-Obama 38 percent (McCain +17, compared to McCain +22 before conventions)

Health Care policy: Obama 52 percent-McCain 40 percent (Obama +12, compared to Obama +25 before conventions)

5. Which candidate do these characteristics most apply to:

Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 52 percent — McCain 40 percent (Obama +12, compared to Obama +20 before conventions)

Is honest and trustworthy: McCain 46 percent — Obama 39 percent (McCain +7, compared to even before conventions)

Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington: McCain 48 percent — Obama 44 percent (McCain +4, compared to Obama +13 before conventions)

6. How would you rate the acceptance speech of:

John McCain

Excellent or Good/47

OK/22

Poor or Terrible/12

Barack Obama

Excellent or Good/58

OK/15

Poor or Terrible/7

Sarah Palin

Excellent or Good/60

OK/14

Poor or Terrible/14

(Note) Not asked for Joe Biden

7. On the conventions

Did the Democratic convention make you more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?

More likely/43

Less likely/29

No difference/19

Did the Republican convention make you more or less likely to vote for John McCain?

More likely/43

Less likely/38

No difference/13

8. On the running mates

Does Sarah Palin as the running mate make you more likely to vote for John McCain?

More likely/29

Les likely/21

No effect/49

Does Joe Biden as the running mate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama (asked before conventions)?

More likely/14

Less likely/7

No effect/72

Do you believe Sarah Palin is qualified to serve as president if necessary?

Yes/48

No/44

No opinion/8

Do you believe Joe Biden is qualified to serve as president if necessary (asked before conventions)?

Yes/57

No/18

No opinion/26

—

Source: USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of 1,022 adults and 959 registered voters Friday-Sunday. Margin of error: From plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points

spacer spacer

WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50 percent-46 percent among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63 percent say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33 percent.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54 percent-44 percent among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of lus or minus 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

— Before the convention, Republicans by 47 percent-39 percent were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60 percent-24 percent, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67 percent-19 percent.

— Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29 percent say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21 percent less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14 percent more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7 percent less likely.

— McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15 percent called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35 percent for Obama.

The highest ratings, however, were for Palin's speech, rated as "excellent" by 42 percent.

— Nearly eight in 10 say they're dissatisfied with the way the federal government is dealing with the country's problems. More than half of those surveyed, 51 percent, say they are "very dissatisfied."