There comes a time in every popular election when the opinion polls start tracking together, the smoke clears, the evidence mounts and the result seems pre-destined.

Tim Lincecum, the 2008 National League Cy Young Award just became yours to lose. (And we know that Lincecum hardly ever loses.)

Despite the Giants' woes. Despite no other Giants starting pitcher having a record at .500 or better. Despite the Giants scoring the fourth-fewest runs in the majors.

Maybe because of all that.

"To have the numbers that he does on a team that's below .500 is that much more impressive," Arizona Manager Bob Melvin said Tuesday, a day after watching his line-up get sliced up by Lincecum.

After racking up his 16th victory in 19 decisions and lowering his earned-run average to an N.L.-low 2.54, I think it's becoming obvious: Lincecum needs to perform no high-wire heroics to grab the Giants' first Cy Young since Mike McCormick in 1967.

He has to pitch well to stay ahead of Arizona's Brandon Webb and CC Sabathia. But he is ahead. And he's almost a lock to pitch well.

"We would love for that to happen," Giants Manager Bruce Bochy said of the ever-more-likely Cy Young chances. "It'd be a great honor for him ... we understand that. At the same time, we're not going to risk anything here."

But that's the point: No more risks need to be taken; no loud campaigns need to be mounted. If Lincecum just performs as usual in his last three or four starts — 115 darts and screaming breaking balls per outing — the award should and will be his.

Even Webb agreed that, unlike the MVP Award, Lincecum shouldn't be penalized in Cy Young voting for being stuck on a struggling team.

"An MVP does a lot of things to help a team go to the playoffs," said Webb, who is 19-7 but has lost his last three starts. "With Cy Young, you can't help what the other four guys in your rotation are doing."

Let's do a quick run-through of the comparisons:

Lincecum vs. Webb

After Webb's recent, ill-timed slide, Lincecum's ERA is almost a run better (2.54 vs. 3.41), his winning percentage is better, and his support has been much worse.

For instance, Lincecum allowed four or more runs six times in 30 games — and didn't get a victory in any of those games.

Webb has given up four or more runs nine times and got victories in two of those games. Flip that around and Lincecum would have more victories than Webb.

"The thing with wins is we've got no control," Webb told the Mercury News' Andrew Baggarly. "You could have a 1.00 ERA but if your team doesn't score, you're going to go 0-30. It's not something you control. That's why the wins and losses are skewed."

Determining factor: Webb's pitching in a pennant race, but not very well.

Lincecum vs. Sabathia.

Sabathia's statistics are better than Lincecum's — if you only count Sabathia's 12-start run since being traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee.

In those 12 dominant starts, Sabathia is 9-0 with a 1.42 ERA and he's doing it under extreme playoff-push pressure.

But he'll have at most four more starts — can you give Sabathia the N.L. Cy Young based on only 16 great starts vs. Lincecum's expected slate of 34 or 35 starts? (If you throw in his 18 Cleveland starts, Sabathia has a 2.77 ERA and is 15-8.)

Determining factor: Even at peak performance, Sabathia might be a part of 12 to 15 percent of the Brewers' victories this season. Lincecum figures to be part of more than 25 percent of the Giants' victories in 2008.

Lincecum vs. history

Voters aren't supposed to think this way, but I think at some point they will: What performance is the most likely to linger in our memories for decades?

What pitcher reminded us of Sandy Koufax in 1965 or Steve Carlton in 1972 or Dwight Gooden in 1985?

I'm no Giants homer — that's proven — but I think Lincecum in 2008 will go down as one of those years. It's already moving toward a consensus. In another few weeks, I think it'll be a landslide.