Michigan State-North Carolina preview

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (31-6)

The Spartans have already defeated the champions of the Big 12 (Kansas) and Big East (Louisville), now they are looking to beat the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season champ and become the second team to defeat three No. 1 seeds in a tournament. Arizona did it in 1997. Michigan State is bidding for its third national championship and second under Tom Izzo. This is the program's fifth final four in 11 years.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (33-4)

The Tar Heels are trying for their fifth NCAA championship and the second under coach Roy Williams. North Carolina has defeated its five NCAA opponents by an average of 21 points. The Tar Heels and Spartans have met four times in the NCAA Tournament, and North Carolina is 4-0. If Tyler Hansbrough scores 21 points, he'll pass Kansas' Danny Manning for third place on the all-time tournament career scoring list.

Point guard

A position of strength for both teams. North Carolina's Ty Lawson was the ACC player of the year because of the way he dominates games. Michigan State's Kalin Lucas was the Big Ten player of the year because he controls his team about as well as anybody in the country. The key to winning could be who has the better game.

Edge: North Carolina

Shooting guard

North Carolina's Wayne Ellington has a scorer's mentality and is averaging 19.2 points in NCAA play. But if he's guarded by Travis Walton — if Walton doesn't guard Lawson — the points won't come easily. Walton held Connecticut's leading scorer A.J. Price to five-of-20 shooting.

Edge: Michigan State

Small forward

North Carolina's Danny Green is especially dangerous from the top of the key, and if he's guarded by Raymar Morgan, Green will be tested on the block. Morgan was big against the Huskies with 18 points and nine rebounds. Green is hitting 41 percent on threes in the tournament.

Edge: Michigan State

Power forward

Delvon Roe starts for Michigan State but averages only 15.6 minutes per game. Draymond Green had eight points in 12 minutes Saturday for the Spartans. Deon Thompson is an unsung contributor for the Tar Heels, but his numbers have been down lately.

Edge: North Carolina

Center/forward

Tyler Hansbrough completes one of the most productive college careers of a generation. He'll finish with close to 2,900 career points and more than 1,200 rebounds. But he hasn't been sharp in the previous two games, going seven of 17 from the field. Goran Suton is Michigan State's effective big man who didn't play in the regular-season meeting between the teams. He was MVP of the Midwest Regional and was the Big Ten's leading rebounder.

Edge: North Carolina

Coaching

North Carolina hasn't come close to losing in the tournament, and nobody has had his team better prepared than Tom Izzo. He and Roy Williams rank among the game's greatest, but we'll go with Izzo's team winning at different speeds — slower against Louisville, faster against Connecticut.

Edge: Michigan State

Bench

The reserve Spartans were fantastic against Connecticut, outscoring the Huskies' subs 33-7. Guard Durrell Summers had a highlight reel dunk, and Michigan State is 17-1 when Marquise Gray is in double figures. Best off the North Carolina bench is forward Ed Davis, the team's second-leading rebounder.

Edge: Michigan State

Blair Kerkhoff's prediction

North Carolina, 75-71: Most of the nation will be pulling for Michigan State, and the Spartans will have a decided home state and crowd advantage. Is this a team of destiny? Perhaps. But North Carolina, with four players who sacrificed starting their pro careers a year early, can make the same claim. Izzo said it best: "If we play good and they play good, we're losing." Agreed.

Michigan State will win if . . .

1.The Spartans can slow Lawson.

Nobody stops him, but keeping him in check — and from finishing his coast-to-coast sprints — is vital. Michigan State has a better chance of this if Walton checks Lawson instead of Lucas.

2. Rebounding domination continues.

Michigan State leads the nation in rebounding margin, and controlling the boards means the Spartans can fast break as they did against Connecticut. As much as the Tar Heels like to run, so does Michigan State.

3. Roll with the karma.

Michigan State could be a charmed team, the way Arizona was in 1997 when the Wildcats knocked out three No. 1 seeds and won the title. North Carolina is the Spartans' third top seed. The Ford Field crowd will be decidedly pro-green.

North Carolina will win if

1. The Tar Heels keep on keeping on.

It sounds simple enough, but since the second half of the LSU game in the second round, North Carolina has imposed its will on opponents, making victories over Gonzaga, Oklahoma and Villanova look easy. But Michigan State presents an ability/toughness blend the others didn't have.

2. Get open shots.

The Tar Heels are hitting a ridiculous 46.3 percent on threes in the NCAA. They get so many good shots with excellent ball movement and Lawson's dribble penetration. Keeping the shooters fed makes them happy and North Carolina dangerous.

3. A last hurrah for Hansbrough

Hansbrough hasn't played well on the offensive end lately, but his defense has been good. North Carolina doesn't lose many when he's on top of his game.

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