It now appears there is some dispute over how many jobs will be created by the city's proposed $5.4 billion rail-transit line.

As reported by Advertiser Staff writer Sean Hao, a University of Hawai'i report suggests that the number of direct jobs created by the transit project might be only about half the 4,200 projected by the city.

The report came out of the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization. The city has long promoted the rail project as, among other things, a big-time job creator. The UH study agrees that there will be new jobs, mostly in construction, but at a far lower level than the city expects.

At one level, this is all speculative. The number of jobs generated by construction of the rail system will depend on how the project is funded, the time frame for completion (you can count on delays) and competition from other projects.

And that outside competition is directly related to the overall strength of the Hawai'i economy. If things turn around and other government and private projects take off, the transit system will have to compete for the workforce available.

A problem here is relying too much on transit as purely a public works project — keeping the shovels and backhoes busy during difficult times. Its true economic impact is much broader.

If the project goes as expected, it will change the face of Honolulu development in profound ways. There will be new and different kinds of development all along the transit route. Commuting and work patterns will change in substantial ways.

Think of the Pali, Likelike and H-3 highways. These projects generated jobs and employment, to be sure. But their long-term economic impact lies in the development that occurred on the Windward side from more access and mobility.

How do you measure that?

Of course, if the transit system fails to generate the ridership promised by its proponents, then an entirely new economic calculus comes into play. Critics insist the ridership estimates are wildly over-optimistic and that the money poured into rail could be much better spent in other ways.

If those critics are correct, then the debate over job creation is almost beside the point. Transit then becomes a massive make-work project in the short term and a tax-dollar sinkhole in the long term.

Construction jobs are valuable, of course. The money paid to the men and women who build the project circulates through the community many times. But if you want to calculate the economic benefits (or costs) of rail transit, you have to look far beyond the jobs generated to build it.

Jerry Burris' column appears Wednesdays in this space. See his blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com/akamaipolitics. Reach him at jrryburris@yahoo.com.