DETROIT — The Lions want Matthew Stafford. Stafford wants the Lions. This makes me question both sides' judgment — but, hey, what do I know?

The point here is that Stafford is going to be a Detroit Lion. It's not official yet. From all indications, it isn't done yet. But both sides want a deal too much for this to fall apart.

The Lions apparently believe Stafford will be a franchise quarterback, and when you are that deeply in love, you don't worry about the price of roses. The Lions are not going to let a few million bucks separate them from their one true quarterback.

Stafford's agent, Tom Condon, will surely try to hold general manager Martin Mayhew upside down and shake every last dime out of Mayhew's pants. But Condon needs to get a deal done, too.

If Stafford doesn't go No. 1 overall, he won't go second or third or fourth either. He might fall out of the top 10. And if that happens, then Tom Condon will have cost Matthew Stafford at least $20 million — and cost himself some future clients.

The Lions could possibly lowball Stafford — if $30 million in guaranteed money qualifies as "lowballing" — and still get him. But that would be risky. First of all, Condon could walk away, and while that would be bad for his client, it wouldn't help the Lions, either. They would miss out on the player they want.

I suppose it's possible the Lions are bluffing, in the same way they were bluffing last year when they said they were trying to win. But that seems highly unlikely.

So Matt Stafford is their guy. Detroit's guy. He is not my guy — I've been pretty clear on that. From looking at his numbers and watching him play, I question Stafford's accuracy. He never elevated his team, never showed the ability to win big games, never really struck fear in opposing fans.

But — and you're going to find this shocking — I could be wrong.

Yes, it is true. I would prefer you kept it between us. But isn't that the fun of the NFL draft? Anybody can be wrong, and anybody can be right. (Except for Matt Millen, of course.)

There is no doubt that Stafford has the raw talent to be the No. 1 overall pick. He fits the Lions' scheme, which is a nice change. (Another nice change: They have a scheme.)

My complaint is that there is too much projection built into this choice. The Lions are projecting that Stafford will improve his accuracy, improve his touch, improve his decision-making, become a leader — and they are projecting it because he has a rifle arm.

If Stafford had very good arm strength instead of exceptional arm strength, I don't even think he'd be a first-round pick. That would scare me if I were a Lions fan because I think arm strength is overrated for NFL quarterbacks.

The Lions apparently have a vision of Stafford throwing deep passes to Calvin Johnson. I understand that. I also have a vision of Stafford missing receivers over the middle. But that is the fun of the Stafford debate.

Will this ultimately be fun for the Lions? We won't know for another three years.