honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser


By Richard Halloran

Posted on: Sunday, December 20, 2009

N. Korea may be facing 'revolutionary situation'

 • VA adjusts for female vets

The middle-age "aunties" who tend the vending stands that are among the few things in the North Korean economy that work are close to revolting against the Communist regime led by Kim Jong Il.

Early this month, the government did three things that have aroused the normally docile vendors:

• The regime called in all existing currency and replaced it with new money in which two zeroes had been lopped off. What had been 1,000 won became 10 won. Supposedly the new 10 won would buy the same amount of food as the old 1,000 won, just not require so much cash. Prices were not supposed to rise but whiffs of information seeping out of Pyongyang suggest that prices have shot up.

• The government limited the amount of old won that could be exchanged for new won, first to 100,000 won, then relented and let each person exchange 500,000 won. At the official, and unrealistic, exchange rate that would have been $740 and $3,700, respectively. (Black market rates ran 3,500 won to the U.S. dollar.) A vendor who had scrimped and saved 1 million won would have had half of her savings wiped out.

• Communist Party leaders, seeing widespread anger, especially among the aunties, and riots in several cities, called on the army to maintain order. Some unconfirmed reports said soldiers were ordered to shoot anyone violating the new currency regulations that also forbade North Koreans from holding Chinese yuan, U.S. dollars, Japanese yen or other foreign currencies.

The purported intent was to streamline the currency so that people need not handle bills of large denomination. It also was intended to curb inflation, although how was not clear. The unspoken objective was to stifle the small but effective middle class of merchants who operate outside of government economic controls. But the exchange was done clumsily and turmoil ensued.

This chaos, coming atop a raft of other political and economic issues, raised an intriguing question: Has the long-speculated implosion of the North Korean regime gotten under way? For several years, North Korea watchers in South Korea, Japan, the U.S., Europe and even in China — North Korea's only ally — have wondered whether the regime in Pyongyang would collapse of its internal weaknesses.

An economics professor at the University of Vienna, Rudiger Frank, wrote recently: "The experience of other formerly socialist societies has shown that frustration and discontent silently accumulate until they reach a level that Lenin would call a 'revolutionary situation.' "

Frank recalled: "On Oct. 7, 1989, tens of thousands of seemingly loyal citizens paraded in front of their aging leaders to celebrate the 40th anniversary of East Germany's foundation. Two days later, almost 200,000 people demonstrated in Leipzig against their government, demanding free travel and Gorbachev-style reforms. Within less than one year, East Germany was no more."

The existence of the private vendors has been in itself evidence of economic flaws as a majority of North Koreans rely on them for food and daily necessities because the government's distribution system doesn't work. Even Communist officials have been spotted shopping in the underground markets.

In what is believed to be the largest single marketplace, within a bus ride south of Pyongyang, are an estimated 5,000 vendors. In another market are about 1,500 stands, many selling secondhand goods smuggled in from Japan. Guards are supposed to keep customers away but a modest bribe gets the shopper in.

These markets were closed for three days and factories and business offices were shut down for a week while the currencies were swapped. Meantime, the official Korean Central News Agency blandly exhorted the people: "Let us devotedly defend the Party and the leader by winning a victory in the drive for effecting a great revolutionary surge."