COMMENTARY
If Iraq can succeed, why not Afghanistan?
By Max Boot
For years, opponents of the Iraq war claimed it was an unwinnable waste of resources that wasn't worth fighting anyway. The real war against terrorists, they claimed, should be waged in Afghanistan. But now that Iraq has made heartening progress and we are finally sending more troops to Afghanistan, the critics are applying to Afghanistan the same claims they once used in favor of partial or total withdrawal from Iraq.
Afghanistan, we are told, is a hopeless quagmire. A Newsweek cover story screams "Obama's Vietnam." Andrew J. Bacevich of Boston University writes, "Afghanistan will be a sinkhole, consuming resources neither the U.S. military nor the U.S. government can afford to waste."
Skeptics, including many in uniform, contend that we need to downsize our goals in Afghanistan. Establishing a functioning democracy, they say, is too ambitious in an underdeveloped Muslim country with little sense of nationhood.
It is striking the extent to which the claims now being made about Afghanistan were previously made — and discredited — in the case of Iraq.
Is it quixotic to try to build democracy in Afghanistan? The same thing was said of Iraq. It is true that holding elections wasn't a magic elixir there. But once the security situation started to improve, Iraq's political process began to function and competing factions replaced bombs with handshakes.
The latest provincial elections delivered a strong showing for centrist, secular candidates — a far cry from the sort of extremists (Hamas, for example) that are thought to be favored in Middle Eastern voting. In the long run, democracy in Iraq is likely to strengthen stability. Just as well, because installing a "Saddam Lite" strongman was never a serious option. Most Iraqis would not have put up with it.
Nor would Afghans stand for a strongman "solution." In a 2007 poll conducted by the Asia Foundation, 85 percent agreed that, "Democracy may have its problems, but it is better than any other form of government." In Afghanistan, as in Iraq, there's no practical alternative to supporting the democratic process if we want to create a government with legitimacy, the sine qua non for defeating any insurgency.
What about the claim that we don't need more troops in Afghanistan? Can't a handful of special operations forces prevent a takeover by extremists? We tried that in Iraq. From 2003 to 2006, U.S. troops withdrew to large bases while the Joint Special Operations Command carried out strikes on targets such as Saddam Hussein and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. That turned into a game of whack-a-mole. As top-level terrorists were going down, new ones were popping up and the war was being lost.
The war effort was turned around by an increase in U.S. and Iraqi troop numbers and by the decision to push U.S. troops into outposts in population centers. Ordinary Iraqis could rat out terrorists, secure in the knowledge that they would be protected from retaliation.
The Bush administration lost sight of that basic truth because leaders from Donald Rumsfeld on down feared that increasing troop numbers would stoke resentment of foreign occupation.
But in Iraq, the "surge" was welcomed by a populace concerned above all by pervasive insecurity. The same is likely to happen in Afghanistan as U.S. troop numbers rise. In both nations, nothing feeds anti-Americanism more than concerns that U.S. troops aren't doing enough to impose law and order.
This is not meant to minimize the difficulties in Afghanistan or exaggerate the similarities with Iraq. Afghanistan is a larger and poorer country with more difficult terrain and fewer resources of its own. It also has more porous borders with a much larger problem of terrorist infiltration. But we should not exaggerate the difficulties either.
According to the Brookings Institution, civilian casualties in Afghanistan last year (1,445) were a fraction of the casualties in Iraq at the height of the fighting. From July 2006 to September 2007, at least 2,000 Iraqis were dying each month.
Keep in mind that until fairly recently, the conventional wisdom was that we had won in Afghanistan and could never win in Iraq. Now we hear the reverse, but the new zeitgeist is no sounder than the old. We can win in Afghanistan, as we are winning in Iraq.
Max Boot is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributing editor to the Los Angeles Times' Opinion section.