In about a year, Mayor Mufi Hannemann and other city leaders will gather in an East Kapolei field for the start of construction on the state's largest-ever public works project.

Or the city's ambitious timetable to start building a $5.3 billion train line could be derailed by a lengthy environmental impact review, buried under mounting financing concerns or tied up in lengthy land condemnation proceedings.

Either way, this year will play a big role in determining whether the project stays on schedule, with limited service beginning between West Loch and Waipahu in late 2013, and full service between East Kapolei and Ala Moana Center starting by 2018.

More political consensus is expected this year because residents voted for rail in November. However, there still will be many hurdles to overcome — the biggest being completion of the environmental study.

More immediate barriers include choosing the route of the 20-mile line and fixing a technical problem that's preventing the city from soliciting construction bids for the train project. The city is expected to debate both issues next month.

This year, the city also needs to start finalizing project engineering and management plans and begin acquiring land for the train's right of way.

Wayne Yoshioka, director of the city Department of Transportation Services, said the city's schedule is ambitious, but doable. The city hopes the aggressive schedule will save it money by reducing inflation's impact on labor and material costs.

"It really is about saving money," Yoshioka said. "If you look long-term on the project ... every month we extend the project costs us $10 million."

A public comment period on the draft environmental impact study ends Feb. 6. The city must respond to those comments in its final study, which it hopes to complete about July. Federal approval of that study, a so-called record of decision, is scheduled to occur soon after. The city cannot begin construction without that approval.

Whether construction starts in December also hinges on the city awarding a design/build contract for the elevated guideway that will carry the train, and deciding whether the train will go through Salt Lake as planned or shift to the airport area.

A debate over the route already has prevented the city from starting preliminary engineering, which is a major step toward securing an estimated $1.2 billion in federal funding.

During preliminary engineering, the city will finalize management plans; refine the route's alignment and project costs; and identify benefits and impacts.

After preliminary engineering is done, which usually takes 15 to 30 months, transit projects enter the final design phase, according to the Federal Transit Administration. If the project passes that phase, the FTA provides a full-funding grant agreement.

The city expects to be awarded full federal funds in spring 2011.

Other issues that need to be addressed during the coming year include development of land use regulations and zoning codes around train stations, approval of a project budget for the next fiscal year and initiating the land acquisition process.

'A LOT OF INTANGIBLES'

The timing of the completion of many objectives isn't entirely in the city's control.

"There are a lot of intangibles," said City Councilman Donovan Dela Cruz. "There are other things outside of the city that we have to depend on like federal approvals and state land exchanges.

"It's going to be difficult to pinpoint" where problems could occur, Dela Cruz said. "You really need A, B, C and D to line up all at the same time — that's a lot of balls to be juggling all at the same time."

Councilman Gary Okino was optimistic the city would start construction as planned in December 2009.

"I think so. I hope so," Okino said.

One of the project's biggest immediate hurdles is fixing a technical glitch preventing the solicitation of proposals to begin construction of the first phase, Okino said.

The original 2006 ordinance authorizing the city to build the train requires the administration to seek council approval before soliciting proposals to build the train system. That was added as an attempt to keep the council and public informed about key project details.

However, that provision also violates state procurement laws, according to the state Procurement Office.

Bill 63 would eliminate that provision and allow the city administration to seek construction proposals without council approval, but that issue also isn't expected to be resolved until late January at the earliest.

Okino said he does not expect the environmental impact review to be a problem for the city.

The environmental study "basically is just to disclose the potential impacts and what measures can be taken to address those impacts," Okino said. "I feel optimistic that we're going to pass that hurdle. Basically, it shouldn't be something that stops the project."

Project opponents think otherwise. Anti-rail Web site Hono lulutraffic.com wants the federal government to force the city to reconsider alternatives to an elevated rail, including building an elevated, managed lane highway.

Cliff Slater, chairman of the Web site, also thinks the city is making a mistake by starting construction in East Kapolei rather than Honolulu's urban core.

"I can't see them getting away with that," Slater said. "I just think that they're going to have to do a supplemental draft, and the supplemental draft is going to take them a year or more" to complete.

Councilman Romy Cachola said he's unsure whether the city can stick to its timetable.

"It's a very optimistic timeline. We still have a long way to go," he said.

BUILDING CONSENSUS

One off the biggest unresolved concerns is whether the East Kapolei to Ala Moana route should traverse Salt Lake as planned or pass by the airport. Early next year, the council is expected to switch to the airport.

However, Cachola said he'll continue to push to keep the route through Salt Lake, which is part of his district.

The Salt Lake community successfully lobbied for the current route in early 2007. That's when Cachola cast a swing vote to keep the rail project alive, if it went through Salt Lake rather than the airport.

According to the city's draft environmental impact study, a commuter rail system that runs past Pearl Harbor and the airport would cost more to build and maintain, but carry more passengers and alleviate more traffic, according to the city's draft environmental study. The change would add about $220 million to the project's $5.3 billion price tag.

Cachola also said he'd push to get the city to consider starting construction of the train in the city, where ridership would be highest and the need for subsidies would be lowest.

"If they plan to start at the other end — East Kapolei to Waipahu — I really have concern because it will put taxpayers' pocketbooks on the line," Cachola said. "Once you finish that portion, who's going to ride? How much will be the taxpayer subsidy?"

According to the city, the start of the project's first phase is tied to the location of a maintenance and storage facility, which may be placed between Leeward Community College and Waipahu High School.

Starting construction at that facility and proceeding in 'Ewa also takes advantage of the fact that construction along Farrington Highway and in West O'ahu will not require significant utility relocations, according to the city.

Council members agreed that 2009 will see continued debate and some lingering divisiveness surrounding the train project.

"We're really going to have to work hard to build consensus because there's still some ideas and differences on how the implementation is going to occur," said council member Dela Cruz.

Dela Cruz cautioned that the city should not try to force the project ahead too quickly.

"The public voted to move forward," he said. "From the council standpoint, we just want to make sure we move forward in a responsible manner. It's so important to do it right instead of rush. A mistake could cost three times as much."