The dance between Hawai'i's public sector labor unions and Gov. Linda Lingle has become somewhat more of a waltz in recent days.

Lingle has played tough with the unions, arguing that if they would not accept furloughs, then layoffs were the only alternative. But now the unions have begun talking seriously about a 5 percent pay cut across the board, as a way to ease the state out of its budget mess.

It's almost certain that the 5 percent cut will not be enough to balance the books, as things now stand. But the ice has been broken. The unions now acknowledge they will have to accept less money to keep the ship of state afloat — at least in the short run.

So now the conversation turns to how much and how long, rather than whether the unions will have to give up something to balance the budget.

Complicating things is the fact that the Legislature is about to come back in special session to consider overriding many of Lingle's vetoes. Virtually every one of the bills she has proposed killing has a direct impact on the budget, either because they call for new spending or because they would raise taxes or fees.

Neither the state nor the counties or the unions are likely to come to a final agreement until the Legislature decides what bills will become law and what will die. At that point, budget crunchers from the state, the counties and the unions will take a fresh look at how much money, going forward, is realistically available.

The big news here is that the unions have acknowledged they need to give something. This is not unprecedented. Over the years, public sector unions have backed off when the state was in financial trouble. But there was always a subtext — a bargain if, you will.

The unions would agree to a modest level of pain today — a pay freeze or pay cut or whatever — in exchange for an implicit promise of something down the road. And that's where these negotiations are going to go to the mat. The unions are willing to give, but not permanently.

And the question is: Who will be around in the next couple of years to make good on whatever bargain is struck today? Lingle will be gone. Will today's handshake be valid tomorrow?

Ultimately, the deal will have to involve the counties. But it will also have to involve the state Legislature, which, through tax hikes or spending cuts, will be forced to make today's deal into tomorrow's reality.