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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, July 19, 2009

Recession path differs this time


By Annys Shin
Washington Post

WASHINGTON — Ivy Hover has been crashing with relatives in Oregon for nine months after losing her Las Vegas house to foreclosure. She splits her time between a cousin's place in Portland and her parents' home in Salem while she looks for work in both cities. At times, she said, sharing a roof with mom and dad again has been like entering a time warp.

"They're always your parents ... they'll always tell you what to do. Then I'm like, 'Wait, I'm 40,' " Hover said.

Housing economists have a slightly different term for Hover's feelings. They call it pent-up demand and regard it as a good omen for the housing market. Past recessions have shown that "household formation comes back quickly ... if people even think the employment situation is improving," said George Masnick, a demographer for Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

This recession, however, may not follow past patterns because consumers are constrained in ways not seen after past downturns. They have lost record amounts of wealth and scaled back spending. Even after the recovery begins, job creation is expected to be sluggish.