When fundraising planning sessions are already under way for Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, who is up for re-election next year, you know the political season is upon us.

Given Inouye's general popularity and seniority in the Senate, you'd think his backers would be laughing off next year's race. But not so. There is just too much unpredictability in politics to take anything for granted, even for a titan such as Inouye.

One of the ways politicians and those around them try to diminish this unpredictability factor is through polling. They hate public polls, particularly if they happen to show poorly. But they do their own polling constantly and vigorously.

One of the first public polls to hit the streets comes out of the avowedly progressive/liberal blog Daily Kos. A few days ago, Daily Kos writer Steve Singsier took a look at the upcoming contest for governor of Hawai'i — surely the billboard event for 2010.

Interest in this particular race was clearly driven by the candidacy of Democratic U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, for whom the blog has affection. But it was a clear-headed poll, nonetheless, based on what was reported.

The poll turned up some interesting numbers. In a head-to-head Democratic primary contest between Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (who has yet to formally declare), Abercrombie has a strong lead. But interestingly, Abercrombie and Hannemann are just about equal when pitched against presumptive Republican candidate Duke Aiona, now the lieutenant governor.

This poll suggests either Hannemann or Abercrombie would beat Aiona at this early stage in the game, but with no particular advantage to either Democrat.

The two Democrats are rated somewhat more favorably than Aiona, but in this poll Duke actually has the lowest numbers of people with strongly unfavorable feelings about him. That says something about keeping a relatively low profile while the two Democrats battle it out with each other in the headlines.

Daily Kos also tested the waters for Inouye. The obvious and most likely opponent would be Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who has not said what her plans might be. Lingle has strong and sustained personal popularity. This very early poll suggests Inouye would beat her, but by a margin substantially lower than his usual run of election victories.

There's no question where the sympathies of Daily Kos lie. But nonetheless, the poll suggests that Republicans in Hawai'i, while clearly in the struggling minority, maintain enough strength on an individual candidate basis to see some hope on the horizon.

The year 2010 is widely seen as a strong Democratic year in Hawai'i. And that remains true. But polls like this suggest internal warfare and overconfidence could convert a sure thing into something far less certain.

(The poll was conducted by random telephone interviews June 15-17 of 600 likely voters. The margin of error is around 4 percentage points).