On Wednesday, June 17, 2009, The Advertiser headlined, "North Korea May Fire Missile Toward Hawai'i." Although it now appears that North Korea will fire off only some short-range missiles in its own backyard, an attempt to range Hawai'i may come someday.

Can "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il do it, and if so, what are the implications?

There is no evidence that Kim has finally mated a nuclear weapon to a long range missile, so the issue is whether he can reach Hawai'i with an empty nosecone. The short answer is that he probably cannot.

The distance from Pyongyang to Honolulu is about 7,300 kilometers. With an estimated range from 4,000 to 6,000 kilometers, the Taepodong-2 is currently North Korea's most capable ballistic missile, but still a little short. The last Taepodong test was widely viewed as a flop (although it might have been a deception).

On closer examination, it now appears that the April test of the Unha-2 (a Taepodong satellite launch variant) demonstrated the successful separation and ignition of three complete stages before the third stage fizzled out. This is progress. Missile development is a matter of trial and error.

If North Korean engineers and their Iranian partners have learned how to fix the problems encountered in April's test, they may have produced a missile of much longer range. The only way to know is to test it. So far, they are 0 for 3.

Ballistic missile defense is also a trial-and-error thing, so Defense Secretary Robert Gates was right to order the SBX radar to sea and deploy the Army's Terminal High Altitude Air Defense systems to Hawai'i to augment those stationed in Alaska.

The American and Japanese navies would also get a crack at any Taepodong launch with their Standard Missile 3, a part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system.

The Navy demonstrated the capabilities of the Aegis system on February 20, when USS Lake Erie successfully destroyed a dead U.S. satellite in the north Pacific just prior to its re-entry into Earth's atmosphere.

Of course, a long-planned shoot down of a satellite in decaying orbit and the shootdown of a ballistic missile whose trajectory only becomes apparent after firing are two rather different problems. A North Korean long range missile test would present us with an important test of our own capabilities.

If the North Koreans were to fire a long-range missile toward Hawai'i, there are at least three possible outcomes.

It could be another failure. If the latest Taepodong blows up on the pad or drops into the Pacific after less than 2,000 kilometers, Pyongyang's threats will sound even more hollow. Kim will have re-confirmed that he poses no immediate threat to the U.S. and he will have to re-think his strategy of threatening missile tests to gain concessions. Our policy towards North Korea will remain unchanged.

We might shoot it down. If Kim has finally created the missile of his dreams only to find that we can shoot it down at will, his strategy has failed. The U.S. and South Korea can probably continue to contain him, perhaps until the North Korean gulag implodes. Given his health, that might not be long, but this could also make the ailing despot more desperate. While he may not be able to inflict a nuclear Pearl Harbor, he has SCUD and Nodong missiles that range South Korea and Japan, an enormous supply of chemical weapons, and perhaps a half dozen low yield plutonium devices. President Obama has made it clear that the U.S. nuclear umbrella extends to Korea and Japan. While Kim is not beyond restarting the Korean War, he is probably not reckless enough to do so unless he thinks he has a decent chance to win it.

Then there is the third outcome: the Taepodong splashes down just off Diamond Head because we cannot stop it. The Dear Leader wins the day, and then the U.S. faces a hard choice. Either we improve our missile defenses, or we eliminate the threat. Whether we could sufficiently improve our ballistic missile defenses is unknowable. Eliminating the North Korean military threat is possible, but the cost is awful to contemplate.

Retired Col. Thomas D. Farrell, a Honolulu resident, served as an Army intelligence officer during a 30 year career, including a tour in Iraq from 2005-2006. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.