The push by the state of Hawai'i and its counties to accelerate government building projects will help, but won't be enough to prevent a downturn in the local construction industry this year, analysts say.

Moreover, state government may have been tardy in stepping up construction spending given evidence that budgets had not kept up with inflation in the past decade.

That's among the views expressed by economists in looking at the current state economic slump and making forecasts for the coming year.

"It's unrealistic to believe that government initiatives could offset the drop in private construction entirely," said Paul Brewbaker, a principal for TZ Economics.

"Government is simply not that big."

The state and counties announced late last year a program to expedite $1.87 billion of capital improvement projects over 18 months. The move was undertaken to prop up the state's economy and provide support for a construction industry that's experienced high unemployment in the current downturn.

But the program can only provide a partial offset to the losses in private building, such as shopping centers, housing developments and home renovations. Last year, private building permits in the state fell by $679 million compared with a year earlier.

A March forecast by the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization forecast projected an inflation-adjusted decline of 19 percent in construction spending this year, followed by a 10 percent decline next year.

Brewbaker, who contributes to the UHERO forecasts, said some of the problem comes from state government falling behind on infrastructure spending this decade. He said aside from a federal government initiative to privatize military housing several years ago, government spending has fallen this decade when construction inflation is taken into account.

He said several local economists have pointed out this issue for at least five years, including the weeks after a city sewer burst in Waikiki. He said government officials were told several years ago that private construction spending was poised to dip.

"It's remarkable to me that it's taken so long for anything to be mobilized," Brewbaker said, noting also that officials have to be credited now for realizing they had to ramp up efforts.

"This is an issue we've been beating the drum on. You could see the construction downturn coming."