It's unlikely that the Central Pacific Ocean will see above-average tropical cyclone activity during the upcoming hurricane season, according to projections released by the National Atmospheric Administration.

The forecast for the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts an 80 percent chance of a near- to below-normal season. An average season has about four to five tropical cyclones — the umbrella term for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

"Climate patterns similar to those expected this year historically have produced a wide range of activities," said Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Officials warned that there is a chance — about 20 percent — that this season could see more storm activity than usual. That's due to uncertain predictions for El Nino, which typically produces more storm activity.

"Historically if you were to look back at our really busy seasons, most of them have been El Nino years. But one of the problems is it's difficult to predict El Nino itself," said Richard Knabb, deputy director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

With the uncertainty of this hurricane season, officials are emphasizing that the public should be prepared.

"One hurricane of almost any intensity will produce a great deal of damage and impact to the public," Weyman said.

Hawai'i has not seen a disastrous hurricane since 1992, when Hurricane Iniki formed during a strong El Nino period. Because the state has not been hit recently by a tropical cyclone, Weyman said, people may have lowered their defenses.

Meanwhile, officials say the public will know sooner when a storm may be heading our way. The hurricane center is increasing its lead time for releasing storm watches from 36 hours to 48 hours. The same goes for storm warnings, which will increase from 24 hours to 36 hours.

Weyman said that forecasters have access to better computerized models that produce more accurate predictions for specific storms than in years past. Forecasters will also be better able to pinpoint regions a storm may impact.

"We have almost 14 different models that we can run when a hurricane approaches. We found through time that when we use a consensus of all those, you get a very accurate forecast," Weyman said.

"From about 10 to 15 years ago, we are twice as accurate than we were during that period," he said.

Officials last year had forecast that three to four tropical cyclones would affect the Central Pacific Ocean. But a weak El Nino and a developing La Nina — or cooler waters — produced only one storm.

Tropical Storm Kika began on Aug. 7 as a tropical depression south of the Hawaiian Islands. Kika later became a storm and then began to dissipate by Aug. 12.