Is the Comandante back in the saddle? Yes, most say. Yet, that's also the easiest and simplest answer when Cuban politics is neither. Fidel Castro has never been first among equals. His photograph always appeared larger than anyone else's in the Cuban Communist Party's politburo. In the mid-1990s, Castro halted modest economic openings and later launched a recentralization. Though many in the leadership likely disagreed, acquiescence was their only choice.

How could he be back if hardly anyone sees him? After March's ministerial changes, Raul Castro finally has his own government. The Comandante is old and physically diminished, which is probably why he won't go public. He'd rather be remembered by the strong, imposing physique that he enjoyed most of his life.

His power is largely symbolic now. For Raul and the remaining historic figures from the 1950s, the Comandante's legacy is sacrosanct. He cast a larger shadow over Cuba than Mao over China or Stalin over the former Soviet Union. In the early 1970s, the Chinese leadership reined Mao in somewhat, something Cuba's was never able to do with Castro. How likely is it that Raul would denounce Fidel once buried as Khrushchev did with Stalin a mere three years after his passing?

All the same, Raul has taken some steps away from his brother without saying so. He has put institutions at the center whereas the Comandante had basically sidelined them. After a 12-year hiatus, a party congress is scheduled for later this year. The Comandante's parallel government of envoys who could undo decisions at his whim is no more. Though modest, loosening economic controls, especially in agriculture, contravene Fidel's preferences.

Since April 13, the elder Castro has written 24 reflections, a furious pace that started after the Obama administration lifted all restrictions on travel and remittances for family reasons. In one, he said Raul's offer to discuss human rights, political prisoners and press freedom had been misinterpreted. A few days later, Raul stated that Cuba need not make any gestures even as he reiterated a willingness to discuss "everything, everything, everything" with the United States. According to a U.S. official speaking off the record, Cuba's president had not told the administration that he had been misinterpreted. On May 1, some Cubans waved American flags in commemoration of what most of the world knows as Labor Day. In another, he picked an unnecessary fight with Mexico, claiming that the Calderon administration held the cards of the virus close to its chest until after President Obama's visit. A PRI deputy commented: "Mexico hopes for clarification of whether Fidel's reflections are shared by the people and the government of Cuba. If so, we'd have to resort to diplomacy. If not, we'll just overlook his reflections." I suspect Havana's response will be in confidence.

Untangling the knots of charisma is no easy matter. The Comandante is evidently resisting. I'd bet that his reflections are must-read for the party nomenclature, though most are hungry to try something new like striving for a productive economy. By and large, Cuban leaders and ordinary citizens yearn for better relations with Washington. Few take Fidel's side on this issue, which is further complicated by Obama's widespread popularity on the island.

Raul and his inner sanctum are conservative by nature, that is, they aren't prone to make dramatic changes quickly. After raising expectations in 2007-2008, Cuba's old men have almost halted their slow pace. Perhaps they are busy preparing the party congress. Then again, the fear that going faster might lead to their downfall paralyzes them, no matter what Fidel writes.

Out of sight, out of mind: that's how ordinary Cubans approach Fidel. They have moved on, which means that if the pace doesn't pick up, Cuba's leaders better fasten their seat belts.