Hurricane season may leave Isles unscathed
Advertiser Staff
Barring a last-minute and unforseen wallop, Hawai'i will have escaped the 2009 hurricane season virtually unscathed.
But with a little more than two weeks to go until the official end of the season on Nov. 30, officials at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center aren't ready to sound the all-clear to a season filled with a few more storms than had been expected, none of which came close to scoring a direct hit on the main Hawaiian Islands.
"We had a close call with (Hurricane) Felicia," said Ray Tanabe, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Honolulu forecast office.
Felicia originated in the Eastern Pacific and moved steadily west until Aug. 8, when it reached the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, which extends from the international dateline to about 1,000 miles east of Hilo.
Felicia bore down on a direct path toward Hawai'i and sent thousands of Island residents scrambling for emergency supplies only to fizzle out as it moved into cooler waters just prior to reaching the Big Island.
June 1 marks the annual start of hurricane season in Hawai'i and, on May 20, Central Pacific Hurricane Center officials announced their predictions on what 2009 would likely bring: an 80 percent chance that the season would be at or below normal, likely bringing four to five tropical cyclones through the Central Pacific.
But the hurricane center officials hedged their bet.
"We said there was a 20 percent chance of six or more storms if El Niņo conditions developed," Tanabe said.
A late-arriving El Niņo did show up in waters monitored by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and has resulted in seven storms so far this year.
"At the beginning of the season, we were not sure an El Niņo would occur, but then we began to see the (ocean) surface temperature rise," Tanabe said.
Even with the El Niņo conditions, the Central Pacific region went through June and almost all of July without a storm.
Tropical Storm Lana moved into the Central Pacific July 30, continued west well below the Islands and began dissipating Aug. 3.
Felicia, the first full-fledged hurricane of the year, followed on the heels of Lana, winding its way through the Central Pacific Aug. 8 to 11.
August would turn out to be Hawai'i's busiest storm season month, with Tropical Storm Maka passing through Aug. 11 and 12; Hurricane Guillermo Aug. 17 to 20; Tropical Storm Hilda Aug. 23 to 28; and Tropical Depression Two-C on Aug. 29. All skirted the major islands.
Hurricane Neki passed through Sept. 18 to 27 and caused a few more problems than the other storms, Tanabe said.
"A total of 17 people had to be evacuated from the French Frigate Shoals area including Tern Island and Laysan Island," Tanabe said.
A Coast Guard C-130 and the Oscar Sette, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ship that was operating near Midway Island, participated in the evacuations, Tanabe said.
Tanabe noted that one of the more destructive hurricanes ever to pass through Hawai'i did occur in late November.
"Hurricane Iwa in 1982 passed trough the Central Pacific from Nov. 19 to 24 and made landfall on Nov. 23 on Kaua'i," he said.
The devastation was widespread on Kaua'i, and to a lesser extent along O'ahu's Wai'anae Coast.
Though Nov. 30 marks the official end of hurricane season, damaging tropical cyclones can occur almost any time of the year, Tanabe said.
"Only the months of February and May have gone without, according to our records," Tanabe said.
Another concern is that if El Niņo conditions linger during 2010, it could be a relatively dry winter leading to water shortages, especially on the Big Island and Maui, Tanabe said.
