2009 NFL preview capsules
By BARRY WILNER
AP Football Writer
Capsules for the 32 NFL teams as they begin the 2009 season, in predicted order of finish:
AFC EAST
New England Patriots
Patriots fans are a tad nervous these days that the league’s best quarterback, Tom Brady, is getting brittle. The sight of Brady exercising his right arm and not returning to the preseason game with Washington after a hard tackle by Albert Haynesworth had to be alarming for all of New England.
If Brady is healthy, 2009 could have a very similar look to 2007. No, we’re not predicting another perfect regular season, but the Patriots will be uncontainable with the ball, and the Brady-to-Randy Moss connection could challenge some of the records set two years ago.
New England should cruise in the AFC East, even though there are some doubts about the linebacking and the secondary. There are better defenses throughout the conference (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tennessee come to mind), but nobody surpasses the Patriots on offense, in leadership and experience.
Miami Dolphins
Who else will new owner Stephen Ross bring in as minority owners now that Serena, Venus, J-Lo and Gloria are on board? Wonder if Tiger and D-Wade are interested?
The Dolphins certainly are a better financial and artistic proposition than two years ago, when they went 1-15. The housecleaning under Bill Parcells went so well that Miami won the division in ’08, and will be a formidable foe again this season.
Yet the Dolphins are underwhelming at wideout, need some serious work on their pass defense, and have a brutal opening three weeks. They could overachieve again, and QB Chad Pennington is a winner. But challenge the Patriots? Not with Brady around.
New York Jets
The Rex Ryan — or is it the Mark Sanchez — era begins. Ryan brings a gung-ho attitude the team desperately needs; he is the anti-Mangini, if you will. Some critics said the Jets quit down the stretch last year when it was apparent Brett Favre was ailing and coach Eric Mangini had no answers, falling from 8-3 to 9-7 and out of the playoffs.
Nine wins would be a major achievement this year. The schedule is particularly difficult early, when rookie QB Sanchez will be undergoing the toughest part of his adjustment to the NFL. The receiving corps is unproven. Two key defenders, LB Calvin Pace and DE Shaun Ellis, will miss the opener at Houston, and Pace will be suspended for three further games.
The running game with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and defense, bolstered by Bart Scott, must carry this team.
Buffalo Bills
After three successive 7-9 seasons, coach Dick Jauron needs a winning record and possibly a postseason berth to secure his job. He simply doesn’t have the team to achieve that.
Sure, the addition of Terrell Owens will aid the offense, particularly when he’s teamed with deep threat Lee Evans. There’s also the potential, of course, that T.O. will split the team in half with the antics that have gotten him exiled from three other cities.
Trent Edwards is still developing at quarterback, and with the offensive line a mess, his challenge is huge. It got tougher on Friday when Jauron fired Turk Schonert as offensive coordinator. Buffalo also needs to be stingier against the run, but it does have exceptional special teams.
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AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming off their second Super Bowl crown in four years, and a record sixth for any franchise, the Steelers look even better than in 2008. Except for the offensive line, there are virtually no weak spots in Pittsburgh.
Ben Roethlisberger chooses effectiveness over attractiveness, and there’s not a better clutch quarterback in football. The running game should get a boost from ’08 top pick Rashard Mendenhall to spell Willie Parker, and WR Limas Sweed should ably replace departed Nate Washington.
The defense simply is the best around. Pittsburgh has playmakers everywhere, led by Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, budding star LBs LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons, and do-it-all safety Troy Polamalu.
Most impressive is the stability under which this franchise always operates, something coach Mike Tomlin embraced when he replaced Bill Cowher two years go.
Baltimore Ravens (wild card)
Baltimore might win any NFC division, but the Ravens again will have to settle for a wild-card berth in the AFC. Of course, that wasn’t so bad last season, when the Ravens got to the conference title game before losing at Pittsburgh.
There will be some adjustment on a defense that lost coordinator Ryan, Scott and safety Jim Leonhard to the Jets. But the cupboard hardly is bare, and watch for a tremendous season from tackle Haloti Ngata. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed won’t allow slippage.
A three-pronged running game featuring the power of Le’Ron McClain, experience of Willis McGahee and breakaway threat of Ray Rice will help QB Joe Flacco build on an outstanding rookie year. The one big question is the receiving contingent.
Cincinnati Bengals
Typical preseason issues, mainly the inability to sign No. 1 draft pick tackle Andre Smith quickly, are causing many to peg the Bengals as a last-place team. Not in the AFC North, especially if QB Carson Palmer is relatively healthy. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, he’s been plagued by an ankle injury this summer.
Coordinator Mike Zimmer should improve a defense that has some experience and leadership, but needs playmakers. Perhaps LB Keith Rivers will be that guy.
Cleveland Browns
After the Browns fell from 10 wins to a total bust, owner Randy Lerner cleaned out the front office and quickly hired Mangini. The Jets did the same thing a few years ago, surprisingly made the playoffs, then fizzled as Mangini seemed outclassed in coaching matchups.
Not much looks better under the new regime, starting with a prolonged QB competition between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Mangini brought in a bunch of his guys from New York, particularly on defense.
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AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans
The best record in the NFL a year ago got the Titans an unenviable matchup with Baltimore in the divisional playoffs. Had Pro Bowl RB Chris Johnson not gotten hurt in the first half, Tennessee might have backed up that 13-3 mark.
Although the Titans aren’t expected to win 13 again, they should repeat as division winner. A committee of talented performers replaces All-Pro DT Haynesworth, and the linebacking, led by Keith Bulluck, is strong. The secondary is exemplary, highlighted by CB Cortland Finnegan and safety Michael Griffin.
Kerry Collins has become as popular as Kenny Chesney and Brad Paisley in Music City and will remain so as long as he keeps throwing TDs and handing off to a terrific set of runners led by Johnson, LenDale White and rookie Javon Ringer.
No NFL coach has been in his job as long as Jeff Fisher. There’s a reason for that: Fisher is as good as they come.
Indianapolis Colts (wild card)
For the first time in a long while, the Colts have a bunch of questions to answer heading into a season. Will Jim Caldwell be an effective replacement for Tony Dungy, who retired as coach? Can the offensive line get it together and allow three-time MVP Peyton Manning to do his thing? How much will Marvin Harrison be missed at wideout? Will the retirement and subsequent return of offensive assistants Howard Mudd and Tom Moore cause problems?
Will the defense find a way to stop the run — finally? Can safety Bob Sanders, along with DE Dwight Freeney the star of this unit, stay off the injured list?
Despite all those queries, this is a quality team fully capable of winning a title if it gets into the postseason.
Houston Texans
A fashionable choice to sneak into the playoffs for the first time, the Texans have had some injuries in the preseason, and another .500 record might be all they can expect.
If QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton remain healthy, Houston will score. Its offensive line is better than in recent years, which should allow that trio to operate efficiently.
So the onus to make the playoffs falls on the D, which has stars in end Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans, but not quite enough to surpass Tennessee or Indy.
Jacksonville Jaguars
All the progress the Jaguars made earlier this decade under Jack Del Rio seemed to dissipate as they went 5-11 last year. It’s difficult to picture them be a whole lot better in ’09.
Maurice Jones-Drew is a dynamic force in the backfield, and WR Torry Holt has plenty left. The line is a weakness, though, and the rest of the receiving corps is mediocre.
A mere 17 takeaways hurt Jacksonville in ’08 and is the opposite of what Del Rio preaches. Yet the defense doesn’t look improved.
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AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers
Halloween or Thanksgiving? By which holiday will the Chargers have clinched this dismal division?
No team did less with more last year than San Diego, but a late, uh, charge got the Chargers to 8-8 and into the playoffs. Then they knocked off the Colts in overtime in a wild-card game and tested the Steelers.
This should be a 12-win club, particularly with brilliant LB Shawne Merriman healthy again, and with Philip Rivers not involved in any contract distractions. A dicey situation on the offensive line is worrisome for RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, and Rivers’ targets: tight end Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Malcom Floyd.
Kansas City Chiefs
The leg injury to QB Matt Cassel is more than problematic. Any significant improvement for the Chiefs depends on Cassel being the quarterback — Brodie Croyle has proven to brittle and Tyler Thigpen is suited for second string — and the defense finding a pass rush.
New coach Todd Haley will get the offense on track eventually, but firing offensive coordinator Chan Gailey on Monday is not a good sign. GM Scott Pioli will find the right players. They need time, yet in the pitiful AFC West, second place is conceivable.
Denver Broncos
If it wasn’t for the Raiders, the Broncos would have retired the dysfunctional franchise prize for 2009. Almost from the day Patriots offensive mastermind Josh McDaniels took over, the 33-year-old coach has been dealing with unhappy players, including star quarterback Jay Cutler, who forced a trade to Chicago, and wideout Brandon Marshall.
If Mike Shanahan is chuckling at all the discord in Denver, who would be surprised?
Oakland Raiders
And if Lane Kiffin is doing the same thing while he coaches the Tennessee Volunteers, again, it’s no stunner. Whether coach Tom Cable slugged an assistant is almost irrelevant; that something divisive happened is the crux of the problem — one of many — in Oakland. Divisive things always happen there.
The Raiders have some promising playmakers, particularly RB Darren McFadden, but the roster is filled with holes.
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NFC EAST
New York Giants
If you judge the Giants by coach Tom Coughlin’s demeanor on the sideline, you’d mistake them for the Lions. Coughlin’s facial expressions and body language belie the skill of his roster, although a lack of proven players at receiver and tight end could undermine their Super Bowl hopes.
Coughlin prefers to stuff the ball in the beefy arms of RB Brandon Jacobs and his collection of backups and run to victory. The offensive line is built perfectly to do that, but it has shown a few leaks when protecting Eli Manning, who will need a bit more time to get in sync with his wideouts. He’ll also need to find someone who can replace Plaxico Burress as a deep threat.
New York will trouble and drop many quarterbacks, led by sackmasters Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, who returns from a lost season (knee surgery). But the outside linebacking is so-so, and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has taken his brilliant scheming to St. Louis.
Philadelphia Eagles (wild card)
Michael Vick’s new team needs a calmer regular season than what it’s experienced this summer. Aside from signing Vick with the hope he can recapture his unique quarterbacking skills after 18 months in prison for dogfighting, the Eagles were hit hard by injuries in the O-line and on defense.
This is, however, an extremely talented squad that came within a few minutes of making the Super Bowl last season. QB Donovan McNabb knows how to win big games — at least in the regular season — RB Brian Westbrook is as versatile and dangerous as they come, and the receiving unit is rapidly improving. Rookie running back LeSean McCoy could be a sensation; so might WR DeSean Jackson.
Of course, issues on the line could negate much of that.
Everyone in Philly is looking at how the defense performs under new coordinator Sean McDermott, who replaces the late Jim Johnson, one of the NFL’s greatest coordinators. The linebacking group is an uncertainty, and team leader Brian Dawkins no longer anchors the secondary.
Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones desperately wants his Cowboys to christen their new palace with a coronation at the Super Bowl in Miami — one year before the game comes to Jones’ billion-dollar stadium. While the Cowboys are good, they probably aren’t that good. They might not even be playoff good.
The onus is on receiver Roy Williams to spark the offense the way Owens did. And for QB Tony Romo to make big plays down the stretch, which he stopped doing in Dallas’ slide a year ago. He’ll be helped by a strong running game paced by versatile RB Felix Jones, and the NFL’s best tight end, Jason Witten.
Dallas was minus-11 in turnover margin in ’08, a number that would doom it again if it happens this year. But LB DeMarcus Ware, with 20 of the team’s 59 sacks, can turn around games by himself.
Washington Redskins
OK, they are the best fourth-place team in the league, possibly in all of pro sports. They should be 8-8 or better. But they also live in such a high-rent district that it could require 10 wins to stay out of the basement and qualify for the playoffs in the NFC East.
Defensively, the Skins need more than the 18 takeaways of last year, and coach Jim Zorn believes the addition of Haynesworth will have a major effect on all defensive positions. The DBs need to upgrade their coverage and make more interceptions.
With the ball, so much depends on QB Jason Campbell’s mastery of Zorn’s schemes and RB Clinton Portis and the aging offensive line remaining upright for 16 games.
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NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers
Injuries, the Favre tumult, and upheaval at too many positions led to Green Bay’s collapse last year. Through it all, Aaron Rodgers looked very capable as Favre’s replacement and he’s taken more big steps this year. Rodgers has a fine corps of receivers — watch Greg Jennings challenge for a Pro Bowl spot if he recovers well from a blow to the head against Arizona — and the Pack hopes RB Ryan Grant recaptures the touch he had in the 2007 run to the NFC title game.
Coach Mike McCarthy brought in Dom Capers to oversee the switch to a 3-4 defense, which better suits much of the personnel. No one knows the 3-4 better than Capers, and converted OLB Aaron Kampman could be a pass-rushing terror in this system if he also learns to drop in coverage.
The division crown could come down to those two juicy meetings with Favre and the Vikings. Think the Packers will have some extra incentive for those matchups?
Minnesota Vikings
Let’s see: Minnesota has a veteran quarterback who never misses a game, owns all the key passing records and is headed for the Hall of Fame. It has a run defense the envy of everyone in the NFL. Its running back is a scoring threat on every play. And it comes off a 10-6 record and a division title.
So what could keep the Vikings from taking the next step?
For one, Favre’s arm is tender, and the way he finished last season with the Jets was downright ugly. For another, he’s had very little time to get acquainted with his teammates, particularly the guys he must throw to regularly. Watch opponents gear for All-Pro RB Adrian Peterson early on, testing Favre to see what he has left.
There’s also the potential suspensions of star DTs Kevin and Pat Williams for using a banned substance, a case still not settled in the courts.
Chicago Bears
Finally, a big-time QB in the city of broad shoulders. And Cutler will be carrying a huge portion of Chicago’s postseason hopes.
Cutler has the right shoulder and arm to handle the burden, but he also has virtually no wideouts worth mentioning. Devin Hester probably should be returned to full-time duties on kick returns, where he is dynamic, and used sparingly as a receiver. But the tight ends are first-rate.
Chicago must shore up its defense and improve its pass rush, and there are several questions about the secondary.
Detroit Lions
It’s unfathomable that the Lions won’t win a game this season, right? Right?
Well, we think they will win, although there are office pools to pinpoint just when that might be, with lots of folks believing it won’t happen before November.
New coach Jim Schwartz was a good choice by a franchise beleaguered through most of the decade by Matt Millen’s mistakes. Top overall draft pick Matthew Stafford eventually will get in at quarterback, and he does have a standout target in Calvin Johnson.
Schwartz’s area of expertise is defense. He’ll need to be positively Einsteinian to make this unit formidable.
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NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta never has had consecutive winning seasons. Coming off an 11-5 record and wild-card berth, these Falcons are ready to end that ignominious streak, which dates back to the 1960s.
Matt Ryan, that rare quarterback to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, has skill, poise and lots of firepower around him. Michael Turner just might lead the league in rushing, and the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez will open up the offense even more. Roddy White, with a lucrative new contract, should continue his rise, and the line is solid.
If the Falcons can improve against the run and force more turnovers — their 18 takeaways in 2008 tied for last in the NFC — a Super Bowl run is not an outrageous thought. But the defense might have a half-dozen new starters. Then again, is that bad considering its performance a year ago?
New Orleans Saints (wild card)
With an offense that could set records behind 2008 Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees throwing to Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and company, the Saints will be fun to watch. If ...
If all of those targets can stay healthy and remain productive — which has been problematic for each of them. Already, though, they’ve temporarily lost their best blocker, left tackle Jammal Brown, to a sports hernia.
Crucial for New Orleans, as it is for Atlanta, is improved defense. Spirits are high that new coordinator Gregg Williams can make that happen. The prospects do seem bright with upgrades in the secondary and a return to full health by linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who can be a dominator.
Carolina Panthers
A repeat division crown would not be surprising for Carolina, but questions keep arising about the offense and defense. Injuries have damaged the Panthers’ sturdy D, especially the run defense with tackle Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles’ tendon) gone. If LB Jon Beason is out for any length of time, it would be a critical loss.
The offensive line also appeared to be a strength, but has looked spotty. The Panthers want to run as much as possible with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but they need room to roam.
One positive for Carolina: a terrific coaching staff led by John Fox. And Fox is fully behind QB Jake Delhomme.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A team ready for a big fall. The Bucs were in control of the division heading into December, then fell apart with four straight losses. That spiral led to the firing of coach Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen — the guys who held everything together in Tampa.
New coach Raheem Morris, at 33 the league’s youngest head coach, is overseeing a total revamping that began with the front-office moves. It has included the purging of linebacker Derrick Brooks, one of the franchise’s all-time top players, and quarterback Jeff Garcia. The team added to its turmoil on Thursday when it parted ways with offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski. With holes everywhere, the Bucs don’t figure to compete in a very tough division.
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NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
OK, take a deep breath and recite: The Arizona Cardinals are the NFC’s defending champions and nearly won the Super Bowl in February.
Still difficult to believe? Well, breathe deeply again when you read this: It could happen again.
Yes, the Cardinals have some flaws, especially on defense, where they must be more consistent rushing the passer. But they have playmakers there, particularly CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and LB Karlos Dansby.
Arizona will prosper because of an offense that can be unstoppable. Critics point to QB Kurt Warner being 38, but he’s a fresher 38 because he missed several seasons of physical contact as a backup during his well-traveled career. He’ll throw to the game’s best wideout, Larry Fitzgerald, and a superb No. 2 receiver, Anquan Boldin. Even Steve Breaston, the third receiver, had more than 1,000 yards catching the ball in ’08. The running game needs an upgrade, though.
In the West, the Cardinals are the wildest. And the best.
San Francisco 49ers
Make no mistake, the 49ers will play as hard as anyone, and will do so for four quarters. That’s the Mike Singletary way, and it’s how they performed when Singletary took over for the fired Mike Nolan and led them to a 5-4 record.
They probably won’t play as well as everyone else, but this is a team on the rise. Patrick Willis is a powerful force and Parys Haralson could become one at linebacker. The secondary is the division’s best, but needs to force more turnovers.
The Niners will run the ball with Frank Gore and try to be efficient with Shaun Hill at quarterback. The Michael Crabtree holdout has hurt the entire passing game and the O-line is a mystery.
Seattle Seahawks
Few teams were damaged as much by injuries in ’08 as Seattle, which lost nearly its entire receiving corps and all of its offensive line. Adding wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a major upgrade, and if QB Matt Hasselbeck remains healthy, the Seahawks will test defenses through the air.
But the uncertainty surrounding star left tackle Walter Jones puts the entire OL in doubt again.
New coach Jim Mora is energetic for sure, and must make a difference in his specialty, defense. But he’s no Mike Holmgren.
St. Louis Rams
Spagnuolo, who masterminded recent Giants defenses, takes charge in St. Louis, where the talent level doesn’t come close to what he had in New York. But DE Chris Long and safety Oshiomoghe Atogwe are good places to start the rebuilding.
The offense is particularly problematic because QB Marc Bulger has been dinged, operates behind a porous line, and has mediocre receivers.