By Ferd Lewis
Advertiser Staff Writer
That first symptom of March Madness, February Foolishness, is already upon us.
It is that annual point in the waning regular season when Western Athletic Conference basketball coaches begin espousing grandiose NCAA Tournament selection scenarios.
Such as the figment of Texas Christian coach Billy Tubbs’ imagination in which the WAC lands "at least three" teams in the tournament.
Or, Rice coach Willis Wilson’s flight of fantasy in telling the Houston Chronicle, "It would really be an injustice not to get three teams."
Lobbying is one thing, but let’s get a grip, please.
Remember this is a conference ranked 9th by Sagarin and 10th by College RPI.com with only one team, Fresno State, in the top 45 of anybody’s ratings index. The rule of thumb is unless you have compromising pictures of a member of the selection committee, it takes an RPI of 40 or less to crack the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.
So, at this point, with most teams having five regular-season games remaining, only Fresno State (20-3) has reason to throw away the NIT application. Barring a complete collapse, only the Bulldogs know they will be in the field of 64.
Otherwise, in a conference of sagging RPIs and some weak schedules, somebody is either going to have to knock off the Bulldogs in the WAC Tournament to clinch the conference’s automatic berth or run the table starting this week.
That’s what makes these final University of Hawai‘i games interesting. Three of the Rainbows’ final five games, including tomorrow night’s game against Southern Methodist at the Stan Sheriff Center, come against teams with avowed NCAA aspirations.
If the Mustangs (18-6) can avoid the same trap door the Rainbows sprung on the Bulldogs here, and then get past Fresno State and Tulsa, they’d be well positioned for an NCAA bid.
Otherwise, lacking a quality win — their highest-ranked non-conference victim in the College RPI.com listing is 119th-ranked Virginia Commonwealth — they figure to be on the outside looking in.
Tulsa (16-8) is just 5-6 away from home and desperately needs to either win the conference tournament on its home court next month or win out, including games against SMU and Fresno State.
Likewise for TCU (16-8), which is only 4-7 away from Fort Worth and has to run the table, including UH’s home finale a week from tomorrow, or begin anteing up for the NIT.
Then, there’s Texas-El Paso (17-6), which, with a schedule ranked 163rd and no non-conference victims ranked better than 141st, is a fraud.
Expecting the WAC to earn more than two NCAA Tournament berths this year is shooting an airball at reality.
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