One in four polled say accusations hurt opinion of mayor

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By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief

The vast majority of registered voters know that contributions to Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris' campaign are under investigation, and one in four said it had hurt their opinion of Harris, according to a Honolulu Advertiser/News 8 Hawai'i Poll.

But 63 percent of those who are aware of the investigation said it had no effect on their opinion of Harris, a Democrat considered the front-runner in the governor's race.

"The numbers show that Harris continues to have strong support, despite negative perceptions being generated by Bob Watada," said Rick Tsujimura, Harris 2002 campaign chairman, referring to the executive director of the state Campaign Spending Commission. "We're confident support will continue to increase, and will likely surge once the campaign is cleared of the suspicions created by Mr. Watada's attacks."

Harris has said he is being singled out unfairly by the Campaign Spending Commission, and about a third of the voters agree with him, the poll found. But 37 percent said they don't agree. The rest said didn't know or declined to answer.

Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu conducted the poll Feb. 5-11 with a random telephone survey of 364 registered voters statewide. The poll's margin of error is 5.1 percentage points, meaning results of surveying all Hawai'i residents probably would not vary from the poll by more than 5.1 percent.

The Campaign Spending Commission has fined nine companies and individual contributors since November for giving more money to the Harris campaign than legally allowed. State law limits donations in the mayoral race to $4,000.

The commission voted last month to seek a criminal investigation into allegations that the Harris campaign circumvented the limit by illegally attributing donations to people who never made them.

Harris and his campaign have denied any deliberate wrongdoing. The city prosecutor's office has begun an investigation and issued subpoenas for some of the campaign's financial records.

The investigation has been covered extensively in the news media, and voters clearly are aware of it. On O'ahu, 88 percent of voters said they were aware of the investigation, and 79 percent of Neighbor Island voters said they knew about it.

Yas Kuroda, professor of political science at the University of Hawai'iiManoa, said he is skeptical of the 63 percent who said the investigation had no effect on their opinion of Harris.

"I suspect that's what they say, but whether or not they really haven't changed (their opinion) is another question," Kuroda said. "I don't think everyone says, 'I was affected by what I read in the paper or what I heard over the radio' right away. It may take some time."

Kuroda, who conducted political polls in Hawai'i from the late 1960s to the late 1990s, said experience shows public accusations of wrongdoing can be terribly damaging to a campaign and make it difficult, if not impossible, for candidates to regain momentum. That's why negative advertisements and last-minute "smear campaigns" are among the most effective campaign tactics.

Kuroda said an ongoing investigation into fund-raising practices can be especially damaging if it is dragged out and receives extensive media coverage.

"The longer it goes on, the more negative impact it will have," Kuroda said. "Most candidates do respond right away to the charges to defend themselves, and if they don't, their support level goes down. I think it had an impact, and I don't know the exact extent of it. Things could change depending on the kind of campaign his campaign committee is planning on. I don't know what his plans are, but you need to respond like he did."

Harris' supporters and critics appear divided over the mayor's claims that he is being unfairly singled out by the Campaign Spending Commission.

Analysis of the poll data shows that only about half of the people who have a favorable opinion of Harris agree he is being unfairly being singled out, while almost one in four do not agree.

Among people with an unfavorable opinion of Harris, about 24 percent agree that he is being unfairly singled out, and almost 60 percent disagree.

Republican Linda Lingle, who also is running for governor, said she believes the 63 percent who claimed their opinion of Harris had not been affected by the investigation are withholding judgment.

"I think people are waiting to see," she said. "I think most people are fair and want people to be treated with fairness, and they're just kind of waiting to see."

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