Lingle holds slim lead over Hirono, poll shows

• 2002 General Election Voter's Guide

By Lynda Arakawa
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

On the day of the only televised gubernatorial debate, and only 11 days before the election, Democratic candidate Mazie Hirono and Republican Linda Lingle are virtually tied, according to the latest Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll.

The poll shows Lingle slightly ahead, with support from 44 percent of likely voters, versus Hirono's 40 percent.

The rest were undecided or supporting a different candidate.

Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu conducted the telephone survey of 750 likely voters statewide from Oct. 19 to 23.

The margin of error is 4 percentage points, meaning that Lingle's support could range from 40 to 48 percent, and Hirono's between 36 and 44 percent.

Hirono's support figures have remained virtually the same since late September, while support for Lingle — who had a 15-point lead in June — have dropped slightly.

Voters who peeled away from Lingle have joined a significant number who report being undecided, according to the poll.

In such a close race, the undecided voters will be a significant factor in the election and in the remaining days of the campaign.

According to the poll, voters still trying to make up their minds are more likely to be of Filipino and Japanese ancestry. That would seem to be good news for Hirono, who pulls strongest among those groups.

"It shows that we're closing the gap, so I'm happy for that," Hirono said. "But you know what I've always said, right? The only poll that counts is the poll on Election Day."

In what appears to be fallout from the candidates' tug-of-war over the Filipino community, the poll shows a significant group of Filipino voters who supported Hirono or Lingle a month ago now uncertain. Lingle has made great efforts to woo the community, who are traditionally seen as Democrats.

"We always knew this was going to be a close race," Lingle said. "I think the numbers show there's a large number of undecided voters, and our mission in the last 12 days of the campaign is to take our message of change to the people."

Lingle is still stronger among independent voters, but her lead has shrunk since late September.

Her support is strongest with Caucasian voters, people between the ages of 35 and 54, and those who have lived in Hawai'i less than 10 years.

Hirono has a clear lead among voters of Japanese and Filipino ancestry.

Lingle's support among women and Hirono's support from voters younger than 35 have declined as many slipped into the undecided category.

Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief Kevin Dayton contributed to this report.

Reach Lynda Arakawa at larakawa@honoluluadvertiser.com or at 525-8070.