Inspectors hold the power to stave off war

By Rose Pfund

News about what appears to be an ever-increasing movement of troops and equipment to the Middle East gives readers the impression war is inevitable. But is the movement of troops a bellwether of the potential for an all-out shooting war?

Rose Pfund is retired associate director of the UH Sea Grant program.

Furthermore, consider this. The United Nations weapons inspection team may be the true gauge that controls the United States' movement toward a shooting war. The team's positive or negative reports may well be the basis for either support or sanctions by the United Nations for a United States-led war in Iraq.

The United Nations will not support the United States in a war against Iraq as long as Iraq takes steps, however small, to allow inspection and aircraft surveillance. And without U.N. support, the United States will be criticized for conducting a war without world support, except for Britain and a few other nations. It is doubtful that the United States, even with rhetoric backed by huge military assets, can stand alone in the interdependent political and economic world of the 21st century.

The negative popular voice in the United States is another factor that should give pause to the political leadership in starting a war in Iraq.

The point is that the ability of the United States to move ahead to wage an unpopular war may be controlled externally by a small team of inspectors commissioned by the United Nations. The power vested in the inspectors is one of those unplanned consequences of public policy.

It is doubtful that the United Nations planned on controlling the military actions of the United States through the inspection team but, in fact, the power to stave off war with Iraq appears to be in the hands of the U.N. team. Moreover, the Iraqis appear to perceive that the inspection team is a potential trigger for war.

Indeed, the Iraqis can make measured concessions that could extend the work of the team for some time. The reports of the team on "progress" are critical to the United Nations' perception of Iraq's level of compliance.

One cannot but be struck by the incongruity of the state of affairs in the dispute between the United States and Iraq. The U.S. troops and equipment that have been sent to the region at great cost are now being held in check by a handful of inspectors.

President Bush has stated that the American commitment has passed the point of reversibility. The ultimate result of the commitment of troops and military equipment to the Middle East rests on the continuation of the U.N. inspectors on Iraq's compliance in ridding itself of weapons of mass destruction.